Your July 2021 Letter From My Heart, with the Good Bad n’ Ugly

Good morning to July 4th and our independence,

Untold stories – New Expectations 

Expected News: Tracking deaths, even after vaccine.  Justified or more gamesmanship?

Contradicting numbers are rampant, coming from all sides.  Tracking cause of death as well as side effects, due to vaccination, can be insightful and good.  However, such numbers, without anything to compare, correlate, or that provide substantial information, is just mongering.  What did we learn? Actual, relevant facts tied to meaningful conclusions, have proven more precious than gold, silver, or precious stones. Time will prove how wise we thought we were and the full effect of the unintended – even intended – consequences.  Who do you trust?

The Bottom Line: Good News

For Home Buyers, doors are opening again. The simple joy of actually viewing and walking inside of homes, is again possible. This is Good News for both Buyers and Sellers. It helps cement important relationships and key to being best prepared. Preparation is a good discipline.

Don’t Wait – Let’s Talk – Be Prepared

Hope to buy in July, or August? Early Preparation is key – Now is the time to call. 

Bay Area Buyer Alert:

Caution and care are good words of common sense. As companies re-open, as commercial office construction continues un-abated, let’s hope common sense will guide us as we strive to put the fears of CoVid behind us. The numbers say masks helped reduced the spreading of the common cold and flu. Key: Be honest about yourself and your health and risks for respiratory illness.

For myself, seeing friends at the office and having the chance to share stories, was a true blessing, one I better appreciate. It is nice to have an active Summer, to see kids and watch them play. What a joy to eat out, go to concerts and go to the movies. 


Why are we competing with our own government – with taxpayer dollars – when it comes to jobs.  jobs, jobs, and more jobs are ready to fulfilled. Yet taxpayer checks are saying to those able to work – stay home, instead.This is a crazy whisper of those spending our money. 

Children need to return to school – for sound reasonings – but we fight public teachers unions.  Now our country needs to return to the pride and satisfaction of work. Instead, actions by our government, says, no. Return children back to school and incentize people to return to work – Now. We are America and our path of success is with educated, hard working people.

Current market is good news for Sellers: Current price appreciation is above norms. And as expected, headlinesagain spend more time with bubble talk. A definite opinion here:  Such talk, in substance, is B.S. One cannot compare pre-Covid days with this CoVid recovery. It speaks poorly to the profession called journalism. A preference to sell emotions and fears, instead of the substance called truth, balance, and reality. Truly tough forthe “sold” media.

How Best to Be Ready: Be well prepared – Be ready early – Even today. It lets the Seller know your committed and ready. “Cash buying” is nice, but most Sellers prefer the hands on experience of the more traditional Home Buyer.  Homes are part of the American dream.

Housing Stats:

First: Inventory and Sales. One word – crazy. 

Used-homes inventory continues at historical lows – with some exceptions. Locally condo’s – following historical trends – tend to lag the market. Otherwise the market is very active and Sellers are aware that they can be very selective in saying, Yes.  Prepared for YES, today.

Home Appreciation: Annual average – over the past year – is pushing 13 %.  The median number is 25 %.  But this number is skewed to the higher valued home, as would be expected in the high tech world of the Bay Area. For most of us, 13% is a really good number. How would you like to be Diane Oleck on CNBC?  Who for the past 5 years advocated rent, don’t buy.  I wonder if this is a “paid” voice, with an axe to grind? Either way, too bad.

Such voices of expertise, are crying about a coming bust. This even after Biden was elected.  Stats that Matter: 95 % of mortgage homes have at least 10 % equity – 87 % have 20 % or more.  Forbearance leading to foreclosures.. very unlikely per the math.  Only 2.4 % of mortgage properties are ‘under-water’ (home value lower than the mortgage balance).  Let’s not forget, there are some major real estate players buying and hoarding homes. Who do you trust?

Being ready today, with a strong loan application in hand.

It strengthens your Realtor’s efforts in selling you and being sure 

your offer becomes the winning offer. Being best prepared is sound advice. 

Bottom Line:

Call today and let’s prepare for some Summer Buying Fun, now.

What’s new for Real Estate 2021:

1) Rates: Recently bumping around a bit: VA / FHA are back to the low 2’s. Conventional running high 2’s to low 3’s, and Jumbo loans running low to mid 3’s, and up for 30 year fixed rates.

2) Inflation: Remains manageable, though headline numbers continue to cause worry. As an offset, increasing productivity helps control oil costs and wage pressure.  Looking ahead, experts suggest two possible outcomes: A) inflation sticks and rates follow upwards coupled with the Federal Reserve stopping the money printing machine. Or, B) inflation ‘kind of’ sticks and the burden of our debt (being deflationary) helps to keep things on a more even keel with downward pressure on interest rates.  For me, free America.

Good News: Data suggests a favorable 2021 for Bay area Real Estate – the global heartland. 

The Good, the Bad n the Ugly

THE GOOD: Hat tip to Elliot Eisenberg and the other side of the Inflation story. Last spring, inflation wasdeflation, as measured by the CPI.  It was falling value – -4%/quarter. Producer prices declined at a rate of -8%/year. Fear everywhere, yet soon after, the deflationary pressures eased. The same holds true for today’sinflation. Come fall, schools will open, employment will rise, supply will increase and demand soften, as the importance of current government free-money will meet fiscal reality.  Let us joy that pent-up demand is real.

THE BAD: Commentators looking to history, pushing a particular selling point. In this case, comparing CoVidto the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic.  The later followed by the roaring “20’s. Will it happen again? Yes to pent-up demand, but otherwise no. 

Then the US median age was 28, now it’s 38. Then, debt-to-GDP was 10%, now it is 110%. Then, exports boomed in the rebuilding of war torn Europe – WWI.  Today they are shrinking in favor of China. Then taxes were being cut and going back to work, an absolute necessity of life. Today, taxes and over regulation are an issue, as government promotes basements and soft coaches to hard work.  

THE UGLY: Teaching America is not good and without virtue.  Another lesson in “Elections matter”.  If this is what our teachers know to teach, its time for private school. Otherwise teach who we are as country and what it means to live under the US Constitution. Compare our Republic to any historical empire of the world. Teach the importance of civics and properly compare our American Small Business to any system that speaks toCommunism, Socialism, or Fascism.  We are free with freedoms.  The others are totalitarianism andindividualism is lost. We are a great country filled with Churches looking to and preaching the love and compassion of the One Who is God. Greed and avarice is common to all history, yet here we have a court system of innocence before guilty. I believe in equal opportunity and person responsibility. 

planning and preparation This year

Consider Proposition 19 and its impacts on your budget. Consider the expectation of increasing taxes on Capital Gains tax. Together, this become a “planning must”, especially if in a higher tax bracket.  Few understand Prop 19. It is a tax on owning real estate or how it effect you, when you sell your home. Time to learn about the benefits of tax-deferral? Call.

Together we can discuss beneficial changes to your estate planning. We can discuss 

the benefits of off-setting and deferring Capital Gains tax – both State and Fed. 

Good News: We have good tools and many options to minimize – even avoid – paying tax on your appreciated properties – this year or in the immediate future. There is even a golden handshake – built into the real estate tax code. This benefit is not available to stocks. With stocks, you must pay taxes the year you sell. With real estate, we have options and choices. Call us, we would love to share this conversation and opportunity with you. Call today. 

A Bit On What We Do – today or tomorrow – call us.

We help you explore the many options and see which are safe and feasible for you. Building wealth for a more secure future for you and your family. 

For Small Business – whom we love – we provide loans offering a full array of financing.

Residential and Commercial – with a full package of lending options.

Tax-deferral, for those seeking tax-advantages with their current real estate and businesses. We are proud to offer several proven tools and alternatives, designed especially for highly appreciated holdings. Helping you keep your cash working for your future. 

Retirement: Like myself, as we age, real estate becomes ever more personal. If true for you, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about our, too soon, tomorrow – today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. We can bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.

Our Goal:

Be insightful and practical. 

Working with you, to find best answers and solutions. 

No short cuts. 

Success begins with strong preparation and with me – as your professional – you have a proven advocate with the insight and experience needed for success. And I do love success and I know the ropes. Call us – the professional team who loves your success. Call us. We are ready.

Thank you and continued blessings.