Good morning to Summer fun,
– Mortgage Rates Trending Upwards –
Don’t Miss Out – PREPARE TODAY – TOMORROW IS NOW
Turning words, charts, and data into cash, assets, and wealth.
Steve Jobs said it well:
“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them Looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has Made all the difference in my life”.
This strategy fits well for those in their working years, seeking to accumulate wealth through investing. For those in retirement, this approach becomes one of seeking investments that are low-risk, provide reliable cash flow, with upside appreciation. Key to success: It doesn’t happen in a vacuum. We need the experience of a proven professional. Let’s talk. Call Mike.
TODAY’S REAL ESTATE NEWS & HAPPENINGS
New tools for our investors: We have expanded our residential lending. We now service Texas, Florida and Oregon. Quite the benefit for clients looking beyond California boundaries.
Points of interest:
- Economic Drivers: Personal Consumption Expenditures or “PCE”
May inflation cooled over April. Even the core reading – food and energy – did the same. But, the housing inflation numbers seem key to not achieving the Fed’s inflation target of 2 %.
- Real Estate: Cooling Inflation
What will it take to cool this inflationary factor? It is more than just the buy / sell factor. It also includes a rent factor – rent and direct rents. This is keeping the inflationary indexes elevated. And both are complex questions of social policy, governmental involvement, and economic demographics. Thus, there is no quick fix to the supply question of real estate. Further, why would a homeowner give up their low interest mortgage only to find a far higher rate when buying new. Thank you deficit spending. Good News: we are not repeating the of 2008 – 2010 disaster, lead by foolishly driven lending guidelines – zero down, zero income, no doc loans.
- Federal Reserve: Recession and Full Employment
The Federal Reserve policy on inflation is also tricky. Our employment numbers are good. We also know inflation continues to exceed wage growth. And now there is talk of a pending recession. The questions: Is “stagflation” our future – high loan rates, slow growth, inflation, slow wage growth though full employment? If so, does the Fed dare raise rates. The less discussed reality: Falling US dollar. Talk about a tight rope. Stop deficit spending.
Overall Market News
1) Overall Labor Market: Jobs numbers
ADP Numbers: Above expectations. This was led by Leisure and Hospitality, though a slowing is expected. To this, manufacturing added 40 K jobs to last month’s 100 K. Another sector likely to cool. Wage growth shows softening and less than inflation. Yet still positive.
BLS Jobs Report: A moderating factor to ADP numbers. Unemployment rate did tick down, but numbers were only up slightly. No clear indication for future numbers, but likely the same.
Recent Residential Success Story:
Now What’s Fun, Me to you: New Home Construction
Historically, new houses constituted near 15% of all homes sold. While that percentage dropped to 5.8%, in 7/11 – the worst of the Housing Bust – overall, it’s been steadily rising since. In 12/22, it hit an amazing 34.9% and in 3/23, 32.8%. This is nearly matches the high of last year – 33.4%. Of interest: Single-family starts are painfully anemic, while completions are stellar, resulting from supply-chain issues holding up previous deliveries.
The conundrum: New construction is slowing due to the rapid rise in rates – cost of capital – while at the same time, the Fed seeks to slow the “housing component” of inflation. You can’t reduce the available supply and also reduce upward pressure on pricing. I cannot believe the Fed wants a deep recession to make this happen. It will not be pretty.
All told, any expectations for prices to drop.. in my opinion will not happen any time soon. One steady comment from home and investment property owners over the decades: “We wish we had bought more sooner”. Leading to my point. In buying real estate, yesterday is the best day to buy, today is the second best and tomorrow the third. If you are ready and able.. get it done. Call me, I love to talk about this concept. At the end of the day, it is your decision.
The Breadth of Our Lending Possibilities:
We have the best financing options the market offers. Consider: 1) Veterans, 2) 1st time homebuyers with some fabulous brand new programs, 3) self – employed, and 4) investors with and without traditional income sources. Good News: The well prepared borrower. The lending world, being cautious with its money, loves the well prepared. Moreover, our lenders offer more options than pre Co-Vid. Call. Lets talk before you buy. Let’s talk today.
Our Focus: Market Disciplines
Do you have a desire to create ‘more’ wealth for tomorrow? How?
Rule # 1: Sacrificing today.
Live below your means. Not as easy as the words suggest, yet it can be accomplished. Spend less for your daily living than you bring in.
Rule # 2: Investing – Equities. I strongly suggest and recommend one maxes out on the retirement account contributions – each year. This deferred income, with tax benefits, builds for future years. Many such plans are offered, with many employer matching contributions. A great perk. Don’t leave it on the table, always being aware of how it’s invested. For many, a great way to keep your money working for you.
Rule # 3: Investing – Real Estate. Yes, yes and yes. Yes today. Yes yesterday. Yes tomorrow. This is much the same as putting money aside in retirement accounts, while adding diversity. If your focus is in the “building for tomorrow’ stage”, now is the time to talk and prepare.
Divesting Assets: There are times in life where one needs to sell an investment, due to life’s uncertainties. It brings home the need for a carefully review of one’s investment inventory and see if they remain on-track to achieving the intended goals. One needs to flexible and willing to go to cash or find an alternative.
Good News: We not only set a plan in motion, we present the handling of the unexpected or even better – the significant issues of capital gains. More Good News: We have IRS approved tools and techniques to help keep your hard earned capital gains working for you – to keep them away from the taxman – federal and state – on a deferred basis. Such is the beauty of working with Mike Ryan and Associates. We are just a call away. Planning amongst friends.
Preparing to buying your next home: How about a “tool” that uses your old property, as collateral for the new home? How about tools whereby the current, “old” home payment, does not count against you, as you moved into the new. Want More Options: Call today.
Truly, our letters but scratch the surface of available options, alternatives, and potentials. We are ready and experienced in most every stage of life, to directly help you build a strong investment portfolio – regardless life’s ebb and flow. It is why a key approach to serving you, is to work with your unique view of life – today and tomorrow.
Because You Matter
Our letters are a guidepost to wisely buying, selling, or investing. We understand the importance of being patient and of good timing. Our hope is to address your questions and find real life, customized solutions. It is what I love about my work, especially the people-to-people exchange of thoughts and ideas. It proves the best way to discovery and address your needs and unique viewpoint. To this, we then add our complete set of helpful tools designed to complement the shared goal – your success, today and tomorrow. We are here for you.
Your dreams matter. Thank you for your trust and referrals. It’s appreciated.
Call me – Your success is my success.