Residential & Commercial Mortgage Insights
June 2026 Edition | Michael Ryan & Associates
Good morning, and welcome to the official start of the summer market!
PROFESSIONALISM
Preparation with Promising Outcomes
Let’s talk. We frequently discuss the delta between sensationalized headlines and economic truth. Advertisers and media outlets rely on negative, anxiety-inducing clickbait to drive traffic. Our goal at Michael Ryan & Associates is entirely different: we want to help you discern what is truly meaningful and helpful to your financial life. This letter is designed to clear the fog. Are you hearing actual market facts, or just clever misrepresentations? Let’s find out.
In the mortgage business, the corporate trend is a rigid, one-size-fits-all approach. Is that easy for the mega-banks? Yes. Is it best for you? Almost never.
As a boutique Broker, my team brings you the flexibility of a massive institutional network paired with custom-tailored loan structures built around your specific way of life. That personal touch matters. From our very first conversation, we map out the potential benefits of multiple lending paths, balancing your immediate goals against the broader realities of inflation, housing affordability, and macro trends like America’s massive infrastructure and AI investments.
When you call us, you know exactly who you are speaking with. Whether we worked together six months ago or three years ago, you get the same dedicated team and the exact same continuity.
Ready to cut through the noise? Let’s make it easy. Go to michael-ryan.com to schedule a complimentary, no-obligation 30-minute initial chat at a time that works best for you.
MARKET NEWS & REAL DATA
Turning Complex Headlines into Personal Success
Economic Growth & Productivity
Economic growth is fundamentally driven by two forces: productivity and labor input. Historically, a balanced, highly sustainable market sees a 50/50 contribution. However, over the last two years, we have witnessed a massive distortion: roughly 92% productivity gains versus just 8% labor input.
To put that into perspective, even the frantic tech peaks of the late 1990s topped out around a 70/30 split. This explains why we are seeing flat real wage growth alongside a paradoxically tight labor market—businesses are squeezing every drop of efficiency out of technology rather than rapidly expanding payrolls.
Inflation: The Energy Factor
Inflation continues to prove stickier than the Fed hoped, and it’s poised to run hot for a while. While the lagging shelter/housing components in CPI are finally providing a welcome downward pull, the energy and crude oil sector is firmly driving the boat. If energy costs continue to bleed into manufacturing, transportation, and consumer goods, we face a very real potential for headline inflation to push back into the 4% range later this year.
Employment: The Reporting Lag
The labor market had a relatively quiet month with no major sudden shocks to the indices. However, the real challenge right now is the reliability of the government’s reporting methodologies.
Because traditional employment metrics suffer from a 6-to-9-month lag effect, current headlines are reacting to old news, leading to unhelpful speculation. We continue to cross-reference multiple private datasets to find the real, reportable numbers for our clients.
The Real Cost of Construction
You might see headlines warning that home construction material costs are expected to surge by 7% this year. Before you panic about real estate prices sky-rocketing out of reach, let’s look at the actual math—what I like to call “the 3rd-paragraph truth”:
|
Project Component |
Typical Percentage of Total Budget |
|
Materials |
20% to 35% |
|
Labor |
25% to 40% |
|
Land, Soft Costs & Government Fees |
25% to 50% |
The Reality: If materials represent roughly 30% of a project’s total budget, a 7% increase in materials only raises the total project cost by about 2.1%—and that’s before builders apply value engineering or find offsetting price drops in other categories.
New Construction Imbalances
We are still digging out of a generational supply deficit. Current U.S. building permits sit at just 4.3 per 1,000 people, compared to the 1960–2000 historical average of 6.6 (and well below the 1972 peak of 10.6).
Single-Family Residential (SFR) starts are down roughly 9% year-over-year, crippled by high fuel prices and financing friction. However, the script has flipped for multi-family units: condos and apartments have posted a robust 20% increase in starts and a 10% increase in permits year-over-year. Builders are shifting where the density makes sense.
THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY
THE GOOD: We are firmly in a “muddle-through” economy. While we aren’t swimming in the “easy money” of the pandemic era, the standard of living for most Americans remains in a steady, “getting by” cadence. This is exactly why strategic mortgage planning is critical. Every dollar counts. Just because capital isn’t free doesn’t mean you sit on your hands. Focus, plan, execute. There is always a smart tactical move to make.
THE BAD: The integrity of headline jobs numbers is severely challenged. Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data revealed a stark reality: actual business data showed 272,000 net job losses during a period where the initial Birth/Death econometric model had reported a gain of 145,000 jobs. In essence, headline job creation numbers have frequently been overstated by massive margins before being quietly revised downward months later. Watch those headlines!
THE UGLY: Automated call centers, aggressive AI voice clones, and deceptive robocalls are skyrocketing. Protect yourself and your data. If you answer the phone and immediately feel like you are being aggressively sold by a script, hang up. Do not engage with generic call centers. Instead, call a trusted professional whose primary goal is to educate, not transact.
PERSPECTIVE & POLICY
The Fed and Market Liquidity
Federal Reserve policy remains a highly debated topic among analysts. The legacy of aggressive Quantitative Easing (QE)—including the Fed’s pivot to purchasing tens of billions in short-term Treasuries under the guise of stabilizing bank balance sheets—effectively pumped artificial fuel directly into the banking sector. This surge in liquidity is inherently inflationary. The fact that these massive balance-sheet maneuvers often pass with near-unanimous consensus at the Fed leaves many market veterans wondering if true economic data is being ignored just to keep the status quo calm.
The Silver Lining
Despite the Fed’s maneuvering, the private lending market is highly resilient. We are seeing a wave of innovative, flexible lending products hitting the market right now specifically designed to get buyers into properties safely and efficiently.
READINESS, PLANNING, AND PREPARATION
I rarely change this section of my letter, and I repeat it intentionally. Whose time is it today? Are you buying, refinancing, or executing a tax-deferred 1031 exchange this month?
Our job is to simplify the complexities of real estate investing into straightforward, logical solutions via sound counsel. We don’t require you to have a doctorate in finance; we do the heavy lifting for you.
|
Asset Class |
Market Reality |
Our Philosophy |
|
Stocks & Bonds |
High volatility, liquid, paper-based |
Great for liquid diversification. |
|
Real Estate |
High stability, tangible, tax-advantaged |
Our Preferred Wealth Builder. We prioritize safety and cash-flow feasibility. |
What We Offer Across the Board:
Small Business Financing: We love small business owners and provide an expansive array of commercial lending and portfolio tools.
Residential & Commercial: From your primary residence to multi-million dollar commercial assets, we offer a complete package of tier-one institutional and private lending options.
Retirement Real Estate Strategies: As we mature, real estate becomes highly personal. Whether you are navigating working from home permanently or structuring real estate to fund your retirement, we bring clarity to long-term property planning.
No-Doc / DSCR Investment Loans: We finance investment properties across nearly the entire nation using specialized DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans. These require no personal income tax returns and very limited documentation. The loan approval is based almost entirely on the property’s independent cash flow. Investing out of your local area isn’t rocket science—you just need the right team to fill in the blanks.
CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING:
The Case for Buying Real Estate Now
If you ask me my outlook, it’s simple: Buy now, and buy as much high-quality real estate as you can comfortably afford. Why? Let’s look at the three most compelling structural questions in today’s market:
- Will properties continue to appreciate? Yes. Real estate prices continue to rise because of a deep, structural supply-and-demand imbalance that cannot be fixed overnight. Property values are appreciating faster than the average citizen can save cash. (Bonus: I have decades of proprietary SFR data for every single county in the United States to prove it).
- Aren’t higher interest rates a bad thing? Actually, they offer a hidden benefit to the prepared buyer. Higher rates scare off speculative buyers and keep the amateur competition sitting on the sidelines waiting. This creates an exclusive window of opportunity to negotiate clean terms without bidding wars.
- Should I wait for interest rates to drop? Think about what happens the moment the Fed cuts rates significantly: millions of sidelined buyers will instantly rush back into the market. This massive influx of demand will trigger violent over-bidding, multiple-offer madness, and rapid price spikes. By buying now, you secure the property at today’s price—and buying now doesn’t mean you can’t participate in future lower rates. You can easily refinance later as your loan-to-value improves.
Let’s Turn Strategy Into Action
Our role is to bring absolute clarity to time-tested mortgage strategies that keep your capital working efficiently. We pride ourselves on being insightful, practical, straightforward, and entirely free of shortcuts.
We are the professional team that stands with you—feet on the ground, forward-looking, and ready to execute.
Go to michael-ryan.com today, pick a half-hour slot that fits your schedule, and let’s start the conversation.
Thank you, and a special blessing to you and your family as we look forward to a prosperous and joyous summer ahead!
Michael Ryan & Associates
Strategic Mortgage Brokerage
