June 2026 Residential Perspective
Good morning and welcome to a new month of exciting potential!
As we cross into the peak summer buying season, the mainstream media is working overtime to capture your attention with sensational, anxiety-inducing economic headlines. But when you drill past the clickbait and look at what is actually happening under the hood, the data tells a much more stable—and encouraging—story for everyday home buyers.
Fruits of preparation & Smart Buying – Call us. Call now. Let’s separate the noise from the facts.
1. The Economy: Is AI Actually Carrying the US?
The media wants you to believe artificial intelligence is single-handedly fueling the American economic engine. The truth? Very little of Q1’s revised 1.6% GDP growth (down from the initial 2% estimate) came from AI.
While big tech companies spent massively on data centers in the first quarter, much of that high-end equipment and chip inventory is imported. Because imports are subtracted from GDP, the surge of investment in AI was largely a wash—canceled out by the influx of imported AI equipment. The economy is doing okay, but it isn’t relying on AI alone. Furthermore, that spending spree is hitting a cost wall: electronic component prices have soared 19.1% year-over-year, communications gear is up 13.2%, and computer prices rose 8.2%. The tech sector is learning that the physical hardware behind the cloud is becoming incredibly expensive to sustain. Don’t let market speculators cause uncertainty—stay focused, stay grounded, and stay better prepared.
2. Inflation: “Soaring” or Steady?
The Headline: “War and tariffs fuel resurgent inflation, sending Fed’s preferred gauge soaring!”
The Reality: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s actual preferred gauge—came in lighter than expectations at 3.8% headline and 3.5% core year-over-year. Outside of shelter costs taking a brief, artificial two-month data hit (due to no report the previous month), these readings are remarkably calm. Calling a couple of tenths of a percent shift “soaring” is pure hyperbole.
Meanwhile, demand is cooling in sections of the real world: durable goods orders disappointed with a 1.1% drop, and the personal savings rate is taking it on the chin as families use savings and tax refunds to offset the stubborn, daily hammer of fuel prices.
3. Interest Rates & The Fed: A Clearer Lens on Inflation
With recent minor inflation upticks, some talking heads are warning of imminent rate hikes. To echo noted economist Elliot Eisenberg: “Talk of Fed rate hikes is insane. Home prices and rents—which make up over 33% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—are cooling. Wage growth continues to soften, and tariff-driven distortions will work through the system by winter.”
Furthermore, shifting perspectives at the central bank are bringing a more balanced lens to the real economy: the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE.
While official Core PCE currently stands at 3.3%, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean measure is running much closer to the target at 2.3%. By throwing out the most extreme monthly outliers—removing the highest 31% of price increases and the lowest 24% of price declines—this calculation filters out temporary distortions caused by factors like geopolitical energy shocks or investment spending surges. This provides a much clearer view of underlying, persistent inflation trends. Focusing on this trimmed mean measure strengthens a mathematically sound case for interest rate cuts once temporary global disruptions fade.
4. The Labor Market: A Housing Win-Win
While earlier indicators hinted at extreme softening, the latest data shows a steadier underlying momentum. The private sector ADP report for May showed an increase of 122,000 jobs, signaling broad-based, healthy momentum across sectors. The headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll report delivered a major surprise, coming in at +172,000 jobs—shattering the market estimate of 85,000. More importantly, the previous two months’ data were revised upward by a combined 100,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held flat at 4.3% with an incremental decline, while underemployment (U-6) eased a tenth of a point as well.
How many jobs does the US economy actually need to create each year right now? With a sub-replacement fertility rate and shifting net immigration baselines, macro analyst Jim Bianco postulates the answer may be closer to zero, with current US expansion heavily driven by productivity (roughly 92% of growth) rather than raw headcount growth (8%).
Here is the win-win for housing: If job growth stays robust and continues to beat estimates, consumer purchasing power remains high. If headcount numbers stall while productivity takes the wheel, corporate strength remains insulated and the economy avoids a hard landing. Either way, housing demand has a rock-solid floor.
5. Consumer Debt: The Household Clean-Up
Consumers are actively adjusting their habits to manage high interest rates. Federal Reserve data reveals that credit card debt saw a pullback in the first quarter, meaning families are relying a bit less on cards to pay for daily life. Instead, they are aggressively focusing on paying down balances with sky-high APRs, which averaged a lofty 21.5% in the first quarter and are poised to stay there for a while.
Meanwhile, debt categories like mortgages, auto loans, and home equity lines of credit moved higher. While credit card and auto delinquency rates remain elevated, they flattened out in the first quarter of this year. The one outlier bearing close watch? Student loan delinquencies, which saw a sizable jump up to 10.3%.
– Loan Spotlight: The “Wealth Builder” First-Lien HELOC
To match these changing dynamics, we are highlighting a powerful financial tool designed for buyers and homeowners looking for maximum cash-flow efficiency.
Our Wealth Builder program is a specialized standalone first mortgage structured as an all-in-one Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). It completely replaces your traditional 30-year fixed loan and functions as your new financial operating system:
Your Mortgage IS Your Bank Account: When you open this loan, you get a new, fully integrated checking account through the lender. Your direct deposits, paychecks, and income flow straight into this new account.
The Power of the Nightly Sweep: Every single night, the idle money sitting in your checking account is automatically “swept” onto your mortgage balance. Because mortgage interest accrues daily, this nightly drop in principal immediately reduces the daily interest you owe.
Make Idle Income Work: We rarely spend our money the exact day it hits our account. Why let it sit idle in a standard bank earning zero when it can actively drive down your debt? When you need to pay bills, write checks, or make purchases, you do it directly out of this account against your line of credit. This is ideal for disciplined savers, self-employed business owners with variable cash flow, or anyone whose income sits idle in a checking account for weeks at a time before bills are paid.
Streamlined & Fast: Because this program sits outside traditional rigid compliance tracks, it features a simplified fee sheet and no mandatory waiting periods to close.
High Capacity: Available for primary residences, second homes, and investment properties with loan limits scaling up to $3,500,000.
Need a unique, interesting loan program? Always check with us. If you find yourself in need of special financing, have a friend who doesn’t quite fit into the conventional box, or hold crypto and want lenders willing to consider its value—Call today.
The Silver Lining for Residential Real Estate
Despite the broader economic crosscurrents, the structural reality of housing hasn’t changed: we remain fundamentally under-built on housing units. The major surprise of the month comes from Cotality’s Home Price Insights report. National home values rose 0.4% in April, putting them up 0.3% year-over-year. While the year-to-date pace points to a modest 2.4% for the full year, Cotality is explicitly bullish that things will pick up. They are forecasting a 0.9% jump for May and have upgraded their year-ahead appreciation projections to 5.3% (up from 5.1% in their previous report).
Underneath that national average, look at how beautifully stable the market is performing:
Flat & Predictable Pricing: The Single-Family Residence (SFR) median listing price has trended wonderfully flat since the third week of January, while median days on the market has actually ticked slightly lower in that same timeframe.
The Inventory Deficit: Inventory levels remain extremely tight, with 35 states showing lower housing inventory than pre-pandemic levels.
The Migration Paradox: Interestingly, the states seeing the highest percentages of inventory growth compared to pre-COVID baselines are the exact states experiencing the highest rates of positive in-migration. Before you buy, let’s drill down into your local markets to see how they compare to the general trend. We can help.
| Market Metric | Current Status | Real-World Takeaway |
| Q1 GDP (2nd Look) | Revised down to 1.6% | Softening caused by tech import drags and high mid-March oil prices. |
| May BLS Jobs | +172,000 jobs (+100K revisions) | Labor market remains robust; crushing initial low estimates. |
| Cotality Projections | Forecasting 5.3% appreciation | Underlying housing demand remains structurally resilient. |
| Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean | Holding at 2.3% | Strips out wild outliers; signals core inflation is near target. |
| Avg. Credit Card APR | Lofty 21.5% | Highlights why consumers are rapidly paying down high-interest cards. |
What This Means For You — The Bottom Line
Each of us is on a unique path to homeownership. Note this key to success: early work secures a better range of options and control of timing when it comes to buying and financing a new home. Make this month your month to prepare. We can show you how to buy now and still enjoy future rate cuts.
What makes Mike Ryan special is in what we do. Our work begins and ends with you. We meet each person where they are, offering effective guidance leading to solid, stable, and actionable options. “Preparation and Patience” wins.
Call now for our first conversation. Let’s bring together financing options customized specifically for you. We look forward to meeting with you, whether on the phone or face-to-face, to talk through your thoughts and solutions with absolutely no surprises.
Find a financial professional who cares about you as their first priority. Call today or click below to schedule your consultation directly.
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Explore more financial strategies for this market:
How do the qualifying credit guidelines (like minimum FICO or housing history) for the Wealth Builder HELOC compare to a standard conventional loan?
