Your July 2026 Letter From My Heart with the Good Bad n’ Ugly

Turning Mid-Year Complexities into Personal Success

Commercial Real Estate: The Mountain of Sideline Capital

  • The Headline: Overall commercial real estate sentiment has dropped back to 2017 levels, driven by erratic interest rate expectations and Middle East tensions.

  • The Reality: Properties still need refinancing, and there is an absolute mountain of private and institutional capital looking for deployment opportunities. When sentiment dips, savvy investors step in. The money is there; you just need the right broker to structure the access.

The Inflation Conundrum: Look Under the Hood

  • The PCE & PPI Noise: May headline PCE inflation rose 0.4%, lifting the annual rate to a 3-year high of 4.1% (with Core PCE at 3.4%). Wholesale PPI similarly grabbed headlines by jumping 1.1%.

  • The Hidden Truth: Don’t panic. Previous months’ data were revised downward. When you look closely, actual net price growth for the month was incredibly flat.

  • The “Strange Bird” of Portfolio Fees: Fully one-third of the recent inflation increase comes from a bizarre government tracking metric: portfolio management fees. Under their antiquated system, because the stock market has roared over the past two years, the dollar value of management fees went up—so the government clocks it as “inflation,” even though the percentage rate you pay your advisor never changed!

  • A Better Indicator: Our new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, may look to use a more accurate metric: The Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE. This report carves off the top 31% and bottom 24% of extreme monthly price outliers. It clocked in at a highly stable 2.3% in April and 2.4% in May. It shows the core economy is far more stable than headline news suggests.

The “BBQ in a Storm” Housing Reality

  • The Slowdown: New home sales slumped 7.3% in May to an annualized pace of 580,000, and May housing starts fell 15.4%.

  • The “Hello?!” Perspective: The media is whining and crying about these numbers, but they are tracking decisions made two months ago. Think about what was happening then: oil was over $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz was threatened, and consumers were staring at $6 gas. When a severe storm is raging around you, do you go outside and set up for a backyard BBQ? Of course not. You pause. Now that oil has dropped 30% back to the $70 range and hostilities have temporarily eased, expect this temporary housing pause to uncover distinct opportunities for prepared buyers before the crowd rushes back in.

Income, Spending, and Lean Savings

  • The Cash Flow: Personal incomes rose a stout 0.7% in May, and wages managed a solid 0.4% increase. Rental incomes also remained incredibly strong.

  • The Catch: Personal spending kept exact pace, rising 0.7%. Because Americans are spending what they make to absorb higher costs, the nation’s savings rate remained stuck at a thin 3%—a four-year low. Every dollar counts, making strategic planning more critical than ever.

Durable Goods & Manufacturing Grounding

  • The Heavy Lifting: Headline orders for durable goods fell 4.5% in May, but that was entirely dragged down by volatile commercial aircraft and military spending. If you pull those out, “Core” business durable goods orders actually increased by 1.6%.

  • The Industrial Engine: Backing this up, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in solid growth territory for every single month of 2026, a massive turnaround from being negative for the entire year of 2025.

The Bond Market & The Yield Curve

  • The Story: The yield curve has compressed to multi-month extremes, with the 2-year Treasury yielding 4.20% and the 10-year at 4.48%.

  • The Takeaway: While the curve is technically positive, this compression shows the market is fully pricing in a hawkish Fed that will act aggressively to keep inflation from becoming entrenched. It means the window to secure financing before the next macro shift is narrowing.

THE FED: LESS TALK, MORE LISTENING

This summer, we bid farewell to central bank legend Alan Greenspan, who passed away at 100 years of age. Mr. Greenspan was famous for his masterful use of ambiguity, once telling a Senate Committee:

“Since I’ve become a central banker, I’ve learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.”

Our new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, appears to be returning to a quieter, more closed-lipped approach—but for a very different reason. Warsh recently noted that when the Fed talks too much, the financial markets stop functioning efficiently; instead of pricing real economic data, the markets just reflect the Fed’s own words back at them.

Expect fewer public press conferences, less forward guidance, and perhaps an end to the quarterly “dot plots.” The Fed is going to start doing less talking, and a lot more listening.

THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY

  • THE GOOD: As we celebrate our country’s birth this month, it is the perfect time to remember that Americans have always been the ultimate change agents. We represent progress, adaptation, and transformation in the world—regardless of our political stripes, backgrounds, or viewpoints. Progress isn’t always linear, but human resilience is an amazing thing. Real excellence thrives when we embrace our history as innovators and focus on executing our personal financial plans.

  • THE BAD: Job market friction is quietly underlying the numbers. While initial jobless claims settled back to a healthy 215K, the number of people receiving ongoing, continuous unemployment benefits ticked up to 1.821 million—a three-month high. It’s getting slightly harder for displaced workers to find their next landing spot.

  • THE UGLY: Deceptive AI voice clones, aggressive call centers, and distorted economic reporting are wreaking havoc on the consumer psyche. Look no further than the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which recently plunged to historic, crisis-level lows in the 40s. Consumers are completely exhausted by the noise. If you feel like you are on the phone with a salesperson spinning a rigid script, hang up. Protect your peace and talk to an advisor whose primary objective is to educate.

PERSPECTIVE: PROTECTING YOUR CAREER FROM AI

As we look at future investments in America, AI remains the dominant narrative. Renowned economist Tyler Cowen recently published an incredibly pragmatic framework on how professionals can insulate their careers from AI disruption. As you plan your family’s long-term real estate and financial footprint, consider his core principles for navigating this shift:

  1. Look for messy jobs: AI thrives on clean data and predictable loops. It struggles with unpredictable, relationship-driven, or physically complex environments.

  2. Be wary of work-from-home: If a job can be done entirely remotely from a laptop without human interaction, it is exponentially easier to outsource or automate.

  3. Be proficient with AI tools: The winners won’t be replaced by AI; they will be replaced by other professionals who know how to leverage it to maximize their output.

  4. Work in the biomedical sector: The intersection of human aging, health logistics, and medical technology is insulated by massive demand and heavy regulation.

  5. Run experiments: Innovation moves too fast for static theory. Test new workflows, trial alternative strategies, and pivot quickly based on direct field results.

  6. Gather data: Don’t rely on assumptions or media noise. Build your own localized metrics and track your results to see what is actually happening in your market.

  7. Get a hands-on job in the energy sector: As we see in our inflation numbers, energy drives the world. Physical infrastructure, power grid development, and resource management cannot be automated away by a software patch.

READINESS, PLANNING, AND PREPARATION

I rarely change this section of my letter, and I repeat it intentionally. Whose time is it today? Are you buying, refinancing, or executing a tax-deferred 1031 exchange this month?

Our job is to simplify the complexities of real estate investing into straightforward, logical solutions via sound counsel. We don’t require you to have a doctorate in finance; we do the heavy lifting for you.

Asset Class Market Reality Our Philosophy
Stocks & Bonds High volatility, liquid, paper-based Great for liquid diversification.
Real Estate High stability, tangible, tax-advantaged Our Preferred Wealth Builder. We prioritize safety and cash-flow feasibility.

What We Offer Across the Board:

  • Small Business Financing: We love small business owners. To back that up, we are proud to announce 2X expanded loan limits alongside our new specialized micro-loan programs tailored for rapid business deployment.

  • Residential & Commercial: From your primary home to multi-million dollar commercial assets, we offer a complete package of lending paths spanning tier-one institutional through private capital options.

  • Retirement Real Estate Strategies: As we mature, real estate becomes highly personal. We specialize in structuring many tax-deferral strategies as we reposition our lives, protect assets, and prepare for tomorrow.

  • No-Doc / DSCR Investment Loans: We finance investment properties across nearly the entire nation using specialized DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans. These require no personal income tax returns and very limited documentation. The loan approval is based almost entirely on the property’s independent cash flow. Investing out of your local area isn’t rocket science—you just need the right team to fill in the blanks.

CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING:

The Case for Buying Real Estate Now

If you ask me my outlook, it’s simple: Buy now, and buy as much high-quality real estate as you can comfortably afford. Why? Let’s look at the three most compelling structural questions in today’s market:

  1. Will properties continue to appreciate? Yes. Real estate prices continue to rise because of a deep, structural supply-and-demand imbalance that cannot be fixed overnight. Property values are appreciating faster than the average citizen can save cash. (Bonus: I have decades of proprietary SFR data for every single county in the United States to prove it).

  2. Aren’t higher interest rates a bad thing? Actually, they offer a hidden benefit to the prepared buyer. Higher rates scare off speculative buyers and keep the amateur competition sitting on the sidelines waiting. This creates an exclusive window of opportunity to negotiate clean terms without bidding wars.

  3. Should I wait for interest rates to drop? Think about what happens the moment the Fed cuts rates significantly: millions of sidelined buyers will instantly rush back into the market. This massive influx of demand will trigger violent over-bidding, multiple-offer madness, and rapid price spikes. By buying now, you secure the property at today’s price—and buying now doesn’t mean you can’t participate in future lower rates. You can easily refinance later as your loan-to-value improves.

Let’s Turn Strategy Into Action

Our role is to explain and bring absolute clarity to time-tested mortgage strategies that keep your capital working efficiently. We pride ourselves on being insightful, practical, straightforward, and entirely free of shortcuts.

We are the professional team that stands with you—feet on the ground, forward-looking, and ready to execute.

Go to michael-ryan.com today, pick a half-hour slot that fits your schedule, and let’s start the conversation.

Thank you, and a special blessing to you and your family as we look forward to a prosperous and joyous summer ahead!

Categories: Letter From My Heart