Good morning to the special joy of Spring Buying;
PROFESSIONALISM
Preparation with Promising Outcomes
Let’s talk. We often talk about headlines vs truth, with advertisers using negative info as clickbait. Our goal: learning to discern what is meaningful and helpful to our lives. With this, my letters strive to the counter confusions confronted in every day news. Are you hearing facts or mis-representations? Let’s talk?
In the mortgage business, the typical lending solution is one-size fits all approach. Easy? Yes. But best for you? Not necessarily. As a Broker, my team brings you the flexibility of knowing we customize your loan to best meet you and your way of life. It is the personal touch.
Our personal approach cares about you. From our initial conversations, we begin to determine the potential benefits of each lending option. We also discuss the realities of Inflation, Housing Affordability, and My overall Perspective, including future AI investments in America.
Call Today. I look forward to our first and helpful follow-up conversations:
The range of our conversation:
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- Myths vs. Market Realities
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- The Build
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- Clarifying Investment Plans
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- Why Each Person / Plan is Unique
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- The Need for Advice, believing in success.
Goal: Turning the complex, into your personal success.
Michael Ryan & Associates. We stands with and for you. The time in Now. Let’s talk: What better time to setup a 1/2 hour initial chat? Let’s make it easy. Go to: michael-ryan.com. Set a time best for you – with no obligations. I look forward to our conversation.
MARKET NEWS
General Market: Other than during the 40’s thru the 60’s, GDP growth has averaged around 2% per year. Right where we are at today. I have been calling the current 2% +/- GDP growth and inflation, as muddling sideways. How wrong I have been. We are tracking right down the middle of the fairway!
Employment: A quiet month with no new shocks in the labor indices. What is currently challenging: The in-place reporting methodologies being used. To this, we will continue to seek more reportable numbers. In this, all measures suffer a 6-month lag effect, which often lends to unhelpful speculation about jobs and workers from the current headlines.
Residential Lending: 1st Time Home Buyer median age is range bound: NAR reports – National Association of Realtors – 40 years old. New York Fed indicates 36 years old, looking at credit reports. Redfin – now owned by Rocket Mortgage – shows 35 years.
Most notable reasons for higher ages: Increasing home values over past 5 years plus higher interest rates. The Co-Vid experience cooled home-ownership, as expected and experienced with every major economic downturn.
Inflation: Annual change of items seldom seen in Nationwide numbers. Items up 8 %+: Video and game subscriptions, home health care, cookware, audio equipment. Up 7 % : Jewelry, music subscriptions, photo equipment. Up 6 %: tools, floor and window coverings, indoor plants, hospital and pet services. Up 5 %: dishes, outdoor equipment, musical instruments, services; dental, haircut, funeral, laundry, trash and babysitters. up 4 %: furniture, software, car repair, restaurants, nursing homes, water and sewer service.
And, on a personal note, I just received my annual increase in health insurance… 20.4 %. But, they sure do build beautiful hospitals. Sic
The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly
The Good: Latest trend report of Home Buyers: Per NAR, median age by generation: Gen Z 22, Younger Millennials 32, Older Millennials 40, Gen X 54, Younger Boomers 66, Older Boomers 75, and Silent Gen 82. Of various generations, 50 % of Buyers are Gen X and Boomers. 60 % of 1st THB are between 27 – 35 year old – called the Young Millennials.
Even better: Leading Buyers are actually single women, in the younger age groups.
The Bad: Of the various inflationary facts we deal, one is unspoken: The energy usage of commercial property, consuming about 75 % of US electrical usage. Note: After 5 years of flat bills, they had energy costs increase nearly 33 %, over the past 5 years. With some of our mid-term and older building stock, we recommend energy audits of the utility bills coupled with on-site reviews and retro work. Under the new tax climate, it is beneficial to be able to expense a lot of updates and upgrades. In the past, you had to foot the bill and write if off over a number of years.
And, the Ugly: The increase in Bankruptcies. Headline: Small business is up 67 % year-over-year and personal up 13 %.
Overlooked: The Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics shows projected business formations in March 2026 at 28,980. And the U.S. has been seeing millions of new business applications per year since 2021, with 5.5 million applications in 2023 and about 5.2 million in 2024. This despite a tougher credit and operating environment.
Conclusion: Births vs number of deaths of businesses, is about equal. Thus, the Headline is taking a real number and attempting to spin it emotionally. With about 5 M birth / death, the 2025 BK filings of 25,000 is a very small percentage.
Perspective:
#1 – Stocks are better than Home Ownership: Appreciation and Leverage
With recent day increases in the stock markets, we read about stocks being a better investment than a home. Most homes are not purchased all cash? If you do, you likely will see a 1 – 5 % return, aka appreciation, which pales in comparison to most equity markets. However if you leverage the purchase with 15 % down, the average down payment for the past year – Return of Investment – ranges from 6.7 to 33 %. This is just one of the undiscussed benefits of California home ownership. CALL.
Key: Diversification: Diversification SHOULD include real estate AND equities. Let’s talk!!
# 2 – Affordability
‘You can’t legislate affordability’. Now, let’s drill down using the terms from the headlines: “Median” as in income and home price. Medium is where 50 % is more and 50 % is less than the numbers posted. Further, let us consider that 35 % of all households rent and of those, 1/3 can or could own a home. A lot of noise with the headline, I believe driving a number of people to the sidelines.
Let’s also agree: Covid, open borders, and a rapid rise in mortgage rates, messed up the real estate market. Further, no new “starter” homes in decades. Which does support the challenge with affording owning a property.
With this comes the harsh reality: If my current interest rate is very low, why sell and take on a new loan with a much higher interest rate. The real estate market cycle of owning approximately 7 years before selling and moving up or down was built over decades of practice. This ended abruptly and almost without warning.
Outcome: The real estate industry is still trying to dig ‘ back’ to the days of living in a home for an average of 5 – 7 years. This does not seem to be playing out in the market.
It speaks to the importance of our first conversation. This step is a most important first step in your future success. Let’s move forward together. Each conversation brings excitement as we share desires, concerns, long-term hopes, and best solutions. It really is a fabulous ride.
Good News: The lending market continues offering
new lending options meant for even more Buyers.
Ask any question. We will start with what is most important to you. Call today. We can help.
Readiness, Planning and Preparation
I rarely change this section. Yes, I do repeat it. Whose time is it today? Buying, refinancing, or in a tax-deferred exchange. Is this your month? We simplify the complexities of investing into straight forward solutions, by good council.
Our goal: Finding the best path to success and discuss the discipline to stay the course. It begins when you make the first call. I am ready. Let’s talk today.
Our strategies: Straight forward, logical, and built on sound reasoning. A doctorate in finance is not a prerequisite.
Should one invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, business, insurance, etc.? Each person has a different view, a different comfort level and sense of risk vs reward. Such is the heart of the market place and key to one’s “planning and preparation”.
To this, we offer clients our expertise and experience, to complement their perspective. Our goal: Bring meaningful options designed to enhance one’s desires with market realities. Call today. Let’s set a time.
Why Call Mike?
What We Do – What We Offer – Why We Are Here
We believe in real estate as a good measure of long term success. While we do NOT ignore other types of investments, I love the more stable approach of buying and investing. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize options most feasible for you. We are always ready to help. It is how we built so many trusting relationships – growing wealth and securing the future.
Small Business: We love small business and provide a full array of financing tools.
Residential / Commercial: We offer strong lending partners with a complete package of lending options.
Retirement Strategies: Like myself, as we mature, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our efforts are to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.
Purchase Options for Investment Properties: We finance over most of the entire Nation. Little known loans requiring very limited documentation – NO income tax returns. The loans are based upon the properties cash flow. Curious? Call. Investing out of the area is not rocket science. Yet you do need to have some knowledge. Let us fill in the blanks for you to succeed and prosper!
Consider the Following:
Real Estate Centric solutions: Buy Now, buy as much as you can.
Why? Let’s talk, as to why this makes sense. The most compelling 3 questions:
1) Appreciation? Why Properties continue to appreciate each year? It is a supply / demand imbalance. This increase tends to rise faster than money we can save. Good news: I have decades of SFR data for every county in the USA.
2) Higher interest rates? In one aspect, this benefits the buyer. It takes out speculative pricing and keeps competition on the sidelines, waiting. Special opportunity for the prepared.
3) Interest Rates drop? Should one wait? What happens when rates drop? As interest rates drop many Buyers sitting on the sidelines enter the market. This drives prices (rates of appreciation) higher. By bringing more multiple offers, and over-bidding of price. Moreover, buying now does not mean you can’t participate in future lower rates, especially as you reduce the loan-to-value. Prepare today. Lets talk.
If these ideas sound good, let’s start talking today.
Making your future brighter today & tomorrow.
What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. One worthy and profitable of your efforts and valuable time.
Our Efforts: To be insightful and practical. Working with you, to find answers, matched with carefully planned timing. Priority: Being straight forward, with no short cuts.
We are the professional team who stands with you.
Ready, with feet on the ground, and forward looking !!
Thank you and a special blessing as we look forward to a most Joyous Year.
