Good morning to the joy of a New Year;
PROFESSIONALISM
Preparation with Promising Outcomes
As monthly news rolls in, the waves of pro and con continue. This is Good News. It is indicative of a more stable market, one not racing upwards, not crashing – a nice calm.
Key: Learn to read past headline news that confuses. With this, we start the New Year with the same discipled approach to each day. Hope leads, but a strong foundation is a must, helping us work through all that comes to us. In this vein, I give thanks for another year of writing, reading, researching and learning about your financial goals. Let’s talk.
Our business is based in people selling, buying, and investing – wherever there is need for financing. We demand of ourselves to work hard and be straight forward. You are the priority.
If you are ready, Call us Today. I look forward to our first discussion – even your friends waiting to Buy or Refinance. Let’s talk the pricing benefits of early preparation. It is key.
First step: Identify strengths and weakness of the proposed transaction, the property, the project, the principles. The goal: Maximize potentials and overcome possible trouble. This is an added benefit to our real estate finance speciality. A consultive approach to our service, building successful strategies and easy-to-follow trajectories. It’s good to see the whole picture.
The range of our conversation:
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- Myths vs. Market Realities
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- The Build
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- Clarifying Investment Plans
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- Why Each Person / Plan is Unique
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- The Need for Advice, believing in success.
Goal: Turning the complex, into your personal success.
Michael Ryan & Associates stands with you. Let’s talk: What better time to setup a 1/2 hour initial chat? Let’s make it easy. Go to: michael-ryan.com. Set a time best for you – with no obligations. I look forward to our first, hello.
Your ‘Asset Optimization Specialist’
MARKET NEWS
General Market: We continuing our Tale of Two Cities. Recent GDP numbers are hot, with a resilient, low initial weekly unemployment claims. Yet our gut says let us hold enthusiasm for actual Christmas numbers. GDP: Within the report, retail sales are up 3% annually. Unemployment, can be hard to track considering the gig market – the less than full-time jobs. Yet, more important is income earned and spent. My summary: Continuation of muddle through, as more time is needed to sift through public employment and Seasonal jobs.
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages / QCEW: The BLS model just doesn’t work any longer. The repeated variation and revisions, makes this a near worthless predictor of actual outcomes. This confusion remind me of a recent quip by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; “The market trades on the headline and never corrects with any updated data”. Outcome: A market trading on job growth that never materialized.
Employment: H1-B visa new applications continue to fill the numerical limits of 85 K per year. Fiscal year 2025, is expected to have about 115 K approved (in line with the last 5 years). Renewals are expected to approximate 300 K. (Low of 200 K in 2010, gradually increasing to 425K in 2022, then dropped to 400K in 2024). The total US employed workforce approximates 160M. My take: H1-B conversation is political and not material to the USA workforce.
Residential Lending: A good year with mortgage rates moving off the peaks, with markets beginning to accept the better rates. Refinances vs Purchases are again operating somewhat balanced. Good News: Many new programs have come to the market, as cash sitting on the sidelines creates new programs to deploy. Standard loans, Reverse Mortgages, Low and No Doc lending, Construction, Rehab, Hi-net worth. Outcome: Unfrozen financing market where most everyone can find a fundable fit with solid preparation.
Housing – Home Sales: 2025 showed modest growth in sales, both in existing homes and new construction. Estimated at 4.13 M homes sold. Roughly flat to a slight decline. To note: Q4 improvements attributed to easing mortgage rates. New construction picked up some from previous years with incentives helping, and builders not dropping prices. Similar to what we often see by way of sales styles in cars and automotive – selling monthly payment, not price.
Inventory has moved up to 4.2 months (only up 0.4 per month from last year) indicating a sellers / balanced market in most places.
Inflation: This hot-button topic is a mixed bag. Food inflation easing along with energy. Medical and insurance continues to be on a tear. Wages continue growing in the low single digit. Yet more than current inflation. There are improving sectors – grocery and at the gas pump, yet there other sectors we will carefully watch.
The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly
The Good: Local jurisdictions allowing for increases to building units, density, and right sized construction. One solution to the maligned term ‘affordability’ is to simply build smaller units. Keep the faith, keep leaning in. Solutions are created and let’s stop looking to Uncle Sugar for funding. Push back on waste and reward good work. It is there and we need to be aware.
The Bad: Headlines reporting the negative, even when the numbers are positive. For example. consider 3rd Q GDP at a hot 4.3 %, with 3rd Q consumer spending was an annual 3 %. This is a strong move, 2.5 % annual growth rate, including the negative 1st Q. Helping was strong consumer spending and end of EV tax rebates. Add to this, better than expected import / export numbers. These are good numbers, considering the public layoffs and move to the gig economy. Why the negative press in the face of positive numbers?
And, the Ugly: Truth vs Propaganda. In most areas of CA, the discussion is increasing housing units and lowering costs. News point: CA has pretty much gone flat line for population growth, and if not for the good economy, we would not be creating new households. Second, a good economy brings a call for more square footage and less people per household. Third, we are in yet another decade of NIMBY. The good news: Business are moving towards what is needed for future growth. It will not be easy and tough choices will be made.
Perspective:
Insight: A recent study of 6,000 sales professionals identified 5-types. I tend to fit the category that loves to teach, guide, and build constructive conclusion. One who is unafraid of challenging assumptions in pursuit of meaningful choices and decision, using one’s valuable insight and experience, to guide the discussion.
Thus the question: Where is your investment life plan taking you? For me, Real Estate is an excellent tool to diversify one’s portfolio and prepare for retirement. Small business ownership runs a close second. In both, my role is to ask questions, helping you determine how best to achieve the future you desire. In this pursuit, I provide differing tools, options, and perspectives to optimize your success.
Success:
Homeownership still ranks as one of the top wealth building tools in America. In this, we can help. We offer a complete set of tools to help you decide what is best for you and your future.
2025 in review. We had a couple of our long standing clients who moved with top of market Realtor associates we introduced to them. It worked smoothly. We also aided in the purchase of new homes in CA and TX and FL, plus local refinances and our commercial work. In addition, private monies and low documentation loans were successfully closed.
Call today. We are here to help.
Secret of Leverage:
Is there a nice benefit of homeownership vs renting, with long-term benefits providing a pleasant surprise? Yes. The advantage is the special benefits of leverage. Let’s talk. Call now.
As you look ahead to your tomorrow.
Let’s review options and realistic opportunities.
Readiness, Planning and Preparation
I rarely change this section. Yes, I do repeat it, for each month someone new shows interest in real estate – buying, refinancing, or in a tax-deferred exchange. Is this your month? We simplify the complexities of investing into straight forward solutions, by good coaching.
Our goal: Finding the best path to success and discuss the discipline to stay the course. It begins when you make the first call. I am ready. Let’s talk today.
Our strategies: Straight forward, logical, and built on sound reasoning. A doctorate in finance is not prerequisite.
Should one invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, business, insurance, etc.? Each person has a different view, a different comfort level and sense of risk vs reward. Such is the heart of the market place and key to one’s “planning and preparation”.
To this, we offer clients our expertise and experience, to complement their perspective. Our goal: Bring meaningful options designed to enhance one’s desires with market realities. Call today. Let’s set a time.
Why Call Mike?
What We Do – What We Offer – Why We Are Here
We believe in real estate as a good measure of long term success. While we do NOT ignore other types of investments, I love the more stable approach of buying and investing. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize options most feasible for you. We are always ready to help. It is how we built so many trusting relationships – growing wealth and securing the future.
Small Business: We love small business and provide a full array of financing tools.
Residential / Commercial: We offer strong lenders with a complete package of lending options.
Retirement Strategies: Like myself, as we mature, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our efforts are to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.
Purchase Options for Investment Properties: We finance over most of the Nation. Little known loans requiring very limited documentation – NO income tax returns. The loans are based upon the properties cash flow. Curious? Call. Investing out of the area is not rocket science. Yet you do need to have some knowledge. Let us fill in the blanks for you to succeed and prosper!
Consider the Following:
Real Estate Centric solutions: Buy Now, buy as much as you can.
Why? Let’s talk, as to why this makes sense, starting with the top 3 questions:
1) Appreciation and why Properties continue to appreciate each year? It is a supply / demand imbalance. This increase tends to rise faster than money we can save. Good news: I have decades of SFR data for every county in the USA.
2) What about the HIGH interest rates? In one aspect, this benefit today’s buyers, as it takes out speculative pricing and keeps much of the competition on the sidelines, waiting.
3) What happens if rates drop in the near future? As interest rates drop many Buyers sitting on the sidelines enter the market. This drives rates of appreciation higher, bringing more multiple offers, and over-bidding of price. With buying sooner you can still benefit from lower future rates, plus gain the potential benefits of lower loan-to-value percentages.
If these ideas sound good, let’s start talking today.
Making your future brighter today & tomorrow.
What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. One worthy and profitable of your efforts and valuable time.
Tools: The band of interesting associates we have is very broad. From no monthly repayment loans (think equity share and reverse mortgage 2nd’s for over 55), to our whole life guys are pulling low double digit returns, to equity investors seeing mid to upper teen returns.. Our consulting is investment agnostic.. what works best for YOU?
Our Efforts: To be insightful and practical. Working with you, to find answers, matched with carefully planned timing. Priority: Being straight forward, with no short cuts.
Truly, success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate, offering time-tested insights and experience. Best, I love to see you achieve your goals. Call us.
We are the professional team who stands with you.
Ready, with feet on the ground, and forward looking !!
Thank you and a special blessing as we look forward to a most Joyous New Year.
