Good morning to a New Year of exciting potential;
Residential Lending
Fruits of preparation & Smart Buying
Call us. Call now.
Where do we start? First, let’s consider your existing home mortgage rates with a helpful suggestion. Second, review the coming year’s “hi-level” economic predictions. Third, we reflect upon our usual thoughts, market news and more. Thank you for reading!
Home Mortgage Rates: Let’s use a 0.75 % drop in rates as center to this point. We have bounced off low rates 8 times, last year. The rough part: Each time was but for 1 – 5 days. This makes market timing near impractical. Our suggestion: Prepare for when there is a 3/4 % drop in your homes mortgage rate, let’s talk. Minimal upfront work is need to grab the rate. Give a ring.
Market predictions for 2026:
Review of last year: Unemployment rate – 4.5 %, Fed Funds rate 3.5 %, Mortgage rates 6 %. Pretty good predictions.
For 2026 and mid-term elections:
Core PCE – 2.5 %
Unemployment Rate – 4.8 %
Federal Reserve – 3, 1/4 % cuts
10 Year Treasury – 3.6 to 3.8 %
Owner Occupied mortgage rates – 5.7 % (plus / minus .25 %)
Single Family appreciation – 3.5 %
Affordability conversation: Often the question: ‘Do You Want To Buy Real Estate’. Most common response: ‘Yes, but I cannot afford to live here’.
Interestingly, I didn’t ask about the ‘HERE”. Instead, how do you feel about owing your own real estate. This is where our conversation gains traction, stimulates thinking, while provoking questions into potential possibilities. This opens the mind to possibilities and introduces the more detailed realm. Herein, we talk about the logical realities: 1) Income determines WHAT kind of home you buy, 2) savings determines IF and When you buy, and 3) personal Vision.
One’s vision or sense of things, is most often the best place to start our first conversation. Herein, we share ideas, facts, education, conversation. All in the spirit of finding what fits you best and the realities of your daily life. A home that complements one’s life, is a priority.
Ir’s why the emphasis: Let’s talk first. Real estate is highly sensitive to local market condition – buyers, sellers & location. It includes life styles, rent or buy, and valuation, etc. It is the best way to not rely on “nationwide” averages, which limits helpfulness.
Also key: Discovery of the best lending strategies. One size does not fit all. Good News: We have a thorough knowledge of available lending option that can be customized to fit you.
Call! We are ready to help.
We are your lending & planning specialist, ready to help you be an active participant.
Let’s talk. Let this be your first step to a future of success – your dream home.
General News from the Nationwide Landscape
1) Mortgage Rates: The latest news of having the government invest some of the cash on hand, into buying mortgage loans, brings the potential for lower rates and lower monthly payments. Sound interesting? CALL.
Each of us is on a different track to home ownership. When you are deciding the opportunity is at hand, give us a call. The early work secures the best options, both for financing and for any and all offers you make. Put the percentages on your side. It is a good way for the individual to become an even better shopper – before buying.
My Best Advice: Make this month your month to prepare.
Winter season is often a “Buyers” market. Preparation is key to the home you want.
We can show you how to buy now and still enjoy future rate cuts. CALL!
2) Economy:
A) Economic Activity: Signs point to our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) being much stronger than anticipated. Of interest: Increase in Gold exports and a drop in pharmaceutical imports, as companies stacked up inventory to avoid tariffs. Both helped bring a big drop in the USA trade deficit. All in all a good sign – with hope for more US production.
B) Employment: So-so. Not on fire and not crashing. Initial unemployment weekly claims numbers account for 3/4 of 1 % of the employed workforce – in the past year. Adding in the extended benefits, impacts about 1 1/2 % of the stated workforce. Historically not too bad. Near impossible to track those who jump to other work (think Gubhub, Lyft, etc.) who make more money in the gig economy than UE claim benefits, therefore never filing after leaving or losing their previous job.
Latest jobs numbers had a drop in the unemployment rate with people moving from part time to full time. Good for December, yet a substantial drop to both October and November job creations adjustments. This to the tune of 75,000 less jobs. Lets not forget October DC shut down caused ripple effects not yet fully known.
C) Debt: Latest Federal Reserve policy reduces Quantitative Tightening by about 50 %. Half the T-Bill and mortgage payoffs going back into the Treasury market. This will provide needed liquidity. Yet, for home mortgage rate reductions, continued QT will be a wind against this hope. Don’t over anticipate changes to mortgage rates, near term.
Residential Real Estate
Back to the News:
1) SFR Homes: US median home price in July at $ 432,000 with expected 2nd half of the year having a traditional decline of about 6 %. Latest readings are 410 K +. Right in line with annual movements. Over the past decade the decline from Summer peak to Holiday low averages out to 5.26 %. Softening prices are right on track.
Household formations running about 1.8 M per year from 2021 thru 2024, dropping to 1/3 this pace last year. Still, a lot of pent-up demand.
Builders still pulling back a bit from about 1.4 M annual new homes constructed to about 1.2M
2) Loan spotlight: Numerous variations of income qualifying back available in the market. From our traditional full income documentation to some stated income, using assets as income, and Overtime, RSU’s and more. Let’s talk before acting.
3) Good News: In OR, TX, FL and NC, we offer the full range FNMA / FHLMC – and other traditional owner-occupied loans. More: We have alternative lending products available nationwide – except New York.
NOTE: New Buyer Benefits Coming Now: 1) Higher loan limits announced for FNMA, FHLMC, VA, FHA. 2) 2- 4 unit Owner Occupied purchases – with 5 % down – thru FNMA and FHLMC. This now competes with FHA’s 3 1/2 % down payment, available for decades. 3) FICO may begin selling directly to credit aggregators – people pulling credit reports. Outcome: credit reports lower than $ 85.
Good news:
We are well equipped to help Buyers succeed.
Your professional expert is ready today. Call us.
Commercial Real Estate: Gaining the upper hand
Excellent investment opportunities are at hand.
Call now. Early Preperation Is Key – Start Now
Manufacturers: SBA has increased the loan limits 2X! Great news for manufacturers, especially of SBA 504 loan program. Please call for all the many positive benefits. Go small business, true heart of the American spirit – Made In America!
Rents, Rates and Inflation: Not giving up much. Trending sideways with a slightly negative overall direction. De-flation? Some, but little overall.
What makes us special in What we do
Our work effort with you, first in mind. We meet each person where they are. Offering effective guidance leading to solid, stable, and actionable options and choices. All with a uniquely individual flavor. Give a ring today. Let us help build a solid path for you and those you care about. “Preparation and Patience” wins. Benefiting our clients, we develop relationships far and wide – over the decades. With each relationship comes different tools and financing options. My “Associates” are one such special tool, bringing a more comprehensive financial approach to your plans and strategies. People working with people.
More tools:
– 1031 Exchange: Standard, construction, reverse. With rates falling, this will become more significant.
– Privacy: An LCC business manager, signed papers for a very high, net-worth individual desiring name privacy.
– Pay Capital Gains or Not: A powerful legal strategy whereby capital gains taxes are deferred and remain fully available for a similar re-investment. The beauty: IRS-approved tool to shelter against a sizable income tax bills. Don’t miss out. Keep your money working for you. CALL Today.
Options are far and wide. It begins with OUR first Conversation.
We love to flush out all potential option with a full range of best choices.
Preparing for your tomorrow
Let’s start today.
We look forward to meeting with you, on the phone or face-to-face. Here we can talk through questions, thoughts, and solutions. All in the name of serving you best, with no surprises..
We know what’s most important: Those we have around us. Be well and be safe! Enjoy your family and friends.
