Commercial Lending
The Business & Investor Side of Our Work
Good Morning to the beauty of July!
An important quality in investing: Temperament
not just knowledge – The Oracle of Omaha.
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First Question: What kind of loan am I looking for? Second, What kind of loans are my lending partners funding? Then, which ones fits you and your project.
The Good News: Lending funds are available and we have – or are working on – funding for:
Small restaurant, cash out refinance,
Mixed-use foreclosure bailout,
Construction of a small, single family subdivision
Mixed-use development loan
Our commercial lending partners do loans as small as $100,000. Regularly, we work on loan packages in the $5 to10 million range. We have lenders available from cannabis to hotels. You have needs and wants, and we have the connection to the lending partners who get it done.
Successful Closings Are Our Priority.
.Economic Realities:
What’s Happening Now?
.1) Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: Our favorite “tea leaves” is the 10-year Treasury. It has been trading in the 4 – 4.5 % range, since late January. The recent Federal Reserve Board meeting did as we expected – a do nothing stance. Right or wrong, the Board does attempt to inform the markets what they tend to track and watch. With this, inflation continues to slowly moving towards their 2 % target, as employment numbers show some weakening. Good news: Private sector hiring is improving. Outcome: No changes – for now.
2) Key Economic Data: Inflation
Recent CPI and PPI readings were quite friendly last month, showing a small increase due to how this number is figured over the previous 12 months of data. Though close, it is difficult to know if or when we hit the Fed target of 2%. We will watch energy prices, tax cuts, and if tariffs actually affect pricing. Depending upon your investments, tariffs may have little lasting impact.
History: CoVid brought recklessness by Congress, States, and the Fed. In the face of a serious supply-chain problems, inflation became a devastating issue. In response, the Fed rapidly raised rates and began draining excess cash. But they failed to address the supply-side issue. Truly, a delicate balance. Since Trump, inflation rates have fallen and tariffs are helping cut the deficit. Is it time for Powell to read the memo? Many Fed members talk about 2 to 4 cuts, 1/4 % cut each time, before year end. Let’s hope Congress learns self-discipline.
.3) Jobs Market: Numbers Matter
Last week’s “initial claims” continue to be good – steady and stabile.
Based on indicators, there is a softening. Good news: Wage raises exceed inflation, even as there is an easing of pay raises. Otherwise, there is no notable shift in labor markets. Headlines preach the negative, yet we are tracking with numbers of 6 months ago. Advantage – no significant slashing of the workforce.
FYI: As history has taught, you cannot rely on BLS job reports. It is best to follow several months, not just one. The BLS reports have consistently been revised lower, even a lot. For my clients, BLS numbers are of little use. Needless to say, Main-Stream Media loves to postulate a future, with this overstated number. Sad.
4) Household Debt: As a % of personal income, pre CoVid debt was at 90%. Today it is 78%. More good news: 60% of homeowners have a mortgage rate at 4% Lower.
5) Uncertainty – Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill: Steven Miran, Council of Economic Advisors suggests our economy will grow by $8 to 10 Trillion. If true, US may be able to have a surplus and cut the US debt – not counting tariff revenue.
Other notes: PCE since December, rose 0.4 % while imported goods dropped 0.1 %. Good news as the expected inflation from the tariffs is not yet appearing.
Good New: Whether buying, selling, refinancing, or in need of a successful 1031 Tax Exchange, we have the expertise you need to secure financing right for you and your situation.
Spotlight:
Markets Slowly Shifting
Banks: They are beginning to build up book of loans. Said loans generate interest income.
Office: Key is GDP growth. Company growth and productivity is more important than going back to work, in the office. Yet, in spite of a dropping labor force in DC, returning to the office – from the home – has caused a great boost to DC occupancy rates, both residential and office.
Apartments : Q2 absorption for multi-units was fabulous at 225 K units – 800 K over the past year. This was due to a lack of SFR supply, as builders continue to hold back, waiting for rates and buyer confidence. Cost of construction is under control. Nationwide the occupancy rate is at 96 %, as landlords are prioritizing occupancy, not rent increases. However, rent concessions will be short-term as “lease-ups” for new buildings fill and the supply of apartments reduces.
Affordable Housing: Let’s talk Houston. They dropped all building regulations. Outcome: They have affordable housing and NO homelessness. NIMBY / Affordable housing restrictions = Homelessness.
CA Insights: We are at the bottom of the list in regards to job levels matching pre-CoVid levels. San Jose ranks # 1, with LA & Boston rounding out the top 3. Just math. At the top of the markets for job growth: Phoenix, Dallas, Golden Triangle, Austin. All are running close to 200 % on job growth. The root cause of all the financial challenges – in CA – are State Government restrictions.
NOTE: We successfully structure loans for apartments, hospitality, storage, office, industrial, agricultural, and development projects. Call us. We make a difference.
Key: We have on-going, good working relations with all types of lending facilities.
Be Ready Before the Market Moves
With expectation of falling rates plus new and significant investments coming to the USA, it maybe time to begin preparation for future growth in California. Let’s talk and get a leg-up.
Know How to Win: Discipline, Preparation, Patience
Proven, Trusted, and Successful. Your Professional Team
Tax-Deferred Exchanges (1031s) Are Booming
If you’re considering a 1031 Exchange, let’s talk before you sell to ensure you maximize the tax benefits, keep the most of your cash working for you, and reinvest smartly.
Loans Coming Due? Act Now.
Loan extensions aren’t guaranteed or as straightforward. like they once were. If you have an upcoming maturity, don’t wait – start the financing process early. Even today!
Creative Solutions for Complex Properties
Have a unique investment property or a deal that doesn’t fit the traditional lending box? We specialize in structuring solutions to get financing done when others can’t.
.Let’s Talk Today
Good financing requires great relationships. Our lending partners trust our process and attention to detail. This means better execution and smoother closings for you. If you or someone you know is looking for expert lending guidance, we’re here to help. Now is the time.
Let’s connect today. Early Preparation is Key
