Good morning to November and Holiday season kick-off;
PROFESSIONALISM and Preparation
with promising outcomes
As the latest expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve finally happened, it came with some unexpected news – see below. With this, if you are timing the market, now is the time to start the preparation process. Why so? The market, when anticipating a rate cut, begins to act a week before the next meeting date – better than the day after. This means let’s talk and be ready before the Thanksgiving weekend. No guarantee, it just what the outcome of the last 3 rate cuts tell us.
Now is the time to prepare for this unique opportunity – after a quiet Summer building demand.
If you are ready, Call us today. I look forward to our first discussion, even with your friends waiting to Buy or Refinance. Let’s talk pricing benefits of early preparation.
One Goal: Identify strengths and weakness of clients finance. This gives time to overcome any possible trouble, an added benefit to our specialty – real estate finance. A consulting service aimed to building successful strategies with an easy-to-follow trajectory.
The range of our conversation:
- Myths vs. Market Realities
- The Build
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- Clarifying Investment Plans
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- Why Each Person / Plan is Unique
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- The Need for Advice, believing in success.
Goal: Turning the complex, into your personal success.
Michael Ryan stands with you
Let’s talk: Is now the time to setup a 1/2 hour initial chat? Let’s make it easy. Goto: michael-ryan.com to set a time best for you – with no obligations. It is easy. You schedule the time best for you – I call you. It takes all the pressure off. I look forward to our first, hello.
Then the fun begins as we discuss the benefits of our consulting services. The goal: To become your advocate in building your real estate future. To this, I will present tools and options, so you can decide the best investment path to walk. In this, My Promise: If the results are not what is expected, a refund is offered. Who other than Michael Ryan makes such an offer.
your ‘Asset Optimization specialist’
MARKET NEWS
Economy: Most all the news is good for the economy. – GDP estimates are better than Septembers estimates. Home sales, financing and more all the same direction. Good news: Inflation estimates lower than September. As for interest rates, it remains a mixed bag. We continue our projections of a muddled, to slightly downward market, as we await the Holidays.
Jobs: With the DC shutdown, we look to alternative sources to find clues as to jobs. Our alternative source, ADP, shows continuing weakness in the market. News of layoffs, countered by news of incredible amounts of corporate investments. A shifting market to be sure. And, with a shifting market I believe a bit higher unemployment rate is the result as the open jobs are not matching up with the abilities of those being laid off.
Federal Reserve Policy: A negative triple whammy impacting mortgage rates.
First: Kansas City Fed chair dissented and stated he wanted No rate cut. He will not be a voting member next year, yet the Dallas Fed chair will be and she indicated similar feelings.
Second: As expected, Fed is stopping the run-off of mortgages and T-Bills on the Fed balance sheet. (NOTE: Balance sheet down to 6.6T from a peak of 9T) With this, money will be reinvested to increase market liquidity. The whammy: The expectation was the “cash” would be put back into both Treasury bills and Mortgages. Instead, the mortgage runoff will only go back only very short term Treasuries. This does not benefit mortgage rates.
Third whammy: Fed chair Powell said there is no lock on a December rate cut, with a hint of warning to the market: Don’t over anticipate. Likely, not yet a believer in Trump tariffs, whereas Trump’s focus is on more manufacturing jobs and leveling the playing field.
Housing – Home Sales: Numbers are up. Existing home sales increased, as did new home sales. For all the noise about affordability and such, I simply ask; ‘If all the news is about how bad the market is, how are we still “selling” all we have, and in a timely fashion?’
Inflation: September CPI is moving towards reality. The latest reading has inflation at 3.1 %, year-over-year. The “shelter” component – rents, owner equivalent rents, and lodging away from home – is 1.6 % of the 3.1 %. With this, rents – for instance – have been near zero the past 3 months.
.At the same time, both “OER” (Owner’s Equivalent Rent) and LAH (Lodging Away from Home) are more academic than constructive or predictive. Yet, these 2 alone are are 1.2 % of the total 3.1%, and effect headline news.
Hmm, I wonder if the department publishing annual ‘inflation’ adjustments for social security, think the same way, as a more accurate assessment of meaningful inflation. No politics here.
The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly
The Good: 2024, donations to U.S. charities rose 3.3% to $592 billion – after inflation. Of this, individuals contributed two-thirds of the total. Corporate giving was up 6% and donor-advised funds fueling growth in public-society benefit groups. More Good New:
Social media, globally, is in decline. For the first time – in over a decade – time spent on social media, fell worldwide. In an analysis of 250,000 adults – across 50 countries – average daily use dropped nearly 10% since 2022. The steepest declines are among teens and 20-somethings, suggesting humanity’s fever may have broken. Financial Times
The Bad: With the talk about bad news, we see people bringing their perspective on how to bring improvements, innovation, and constructive ecological repair. It brings hope to the conversation. What is the Bad this month? The unbalanced percentage of headlines stressing doom and gloom, finding no hope in the individual. A friend once said, we embrace 80 % of negative, and if we carry it through to the next day it becomes 95 %. Do me a favor, give someone you know, an unexpected and friendly hug today.
And, the Ugly: Regulation inflation. Truths behind incredible insurance premium increases. They can be attached to overly stringent building codes – new construction and rebuild after fire. Consider: A normal kitchen now requires 8 individual electrical circuits, a bathroom, 4 – 6. Further, certain levels of construction rebuilds now require fire sprinklers. This does not include permit costs, inspection costs, and other costs of bureaucracy.
All this gets built into our insurance premiums. Consider, if a house burns down, what once was $200 – 250 per square foot to rebuild, is now $400 plus. What magnifies these crazy number? Public policy now run by a staff of people detached from those elected City and County officials. Our elected officials are too, detached from this reality.
Perspective
As a social obligation, it is healthy to have good perspective on our US debt and deficit spending. In 1951, US net wealth was 500 Billion, with 25 % of the population not having access to an indoor toilet. Rolling forward, our net wealth is now 150 Trillion. Good news: Growth in US wealth continues to outpace increases in debt. More good news, We can stop the fear mongering regards SSI. The primary task is controlling the ripple effects of high interest rates – free enterprise, growth, jobs, and tariffs vs Fed rates and monetary experimentations.
Where are you moving with your life plan? For me, Real Estate is an excellent tool to diversify one’s portfolio and prepare for retirement. Small business ownership runs a close second. In both, my role is to ask the ‘why’ questions and then help in determining how to achieve it. I provide differing tools to best optimize your path to success.
Good News:
Homeownership still ranks as one of the top wealth building tools in America.
In this we can help. We offer a complete set of tools to help you decide what is best for you.
Financial Capabilities: Together, we focus on your financial capabilities, historical patterns, and tomorrow’s potentials. Why? Because like many, I learned from failure and the joy of success; the importance of self-discipline and solid preparation – all keys to success. Goal: Bringing together dreams, potential, and possibilities into a personalized plan. A unique, hard-earned approach designed to serve you. One that is challenging and helps overcome fears.
Call today. We are here to help.
Secret of Leverage: Is there a secret about homeownership with long-term benefits with a pleasant surprise? Yes. The advantage is the special benefits of leverage. Let’s talk. Call now.
As you look ahead to your tomorrow.
Let’s review options and realistic opportunities.
Readiness, Planning and Preparation
I rarely change this section. Yes, I do repeat it, for each month some one new shows interest in real estate – buying, refinancing, or in a tax-deferred exchange. Is this your month? We simplify the complexities of investing into straight forward solutions, by good coaching.
Our goal: Finding the best path to success and discuss the discipline to stay the course. It begins when you make the first call. I am ready. Let’s talk today.
Our strategies: Straight forward, logical, and built on sound reasoning. A doctorate in finance is not prerequisite.
Should one invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, business, insurance, etc.? Each person has a different view, a different comfort level and sense of risk vs reward. Such is the heart of the market place and key to one’s “planning and preparation”.
To this, we offer clients our expertise and experience, to complement their perspective. Our goal: Bring meaningful options designed to enhance one’s desires with market realities. Call today. Let’s set a time.
Why Call Mike
What We Do – What We Offer – Why We Are Here
We believe in real estate as a good measure of long term success. While we do NOT ignore other types of investments, I love the more stable approach of buying and investing. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize options most feasible for you. We are always ready to help. It is how we built so many trusting relationships – growing wealth and securing the future.
Small Business: We love small business and provide a full array of financing tools.
Residential / Commercial: We offer strong lenders with a complete package of lending options.
Retirement Strategies: Like myself, as we mature, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our efforts are to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.
Purchase Options for Investment Properties: We finance over most of the Nation investment property purchases. Little known loans requiring very limited documentation – NO income tax returns. The loans are based upon the properties cash flow. Curious? Call. Investing out of the area is not rocket science.. Yet you do need to have some knowledge. Let us fill in the blanks for you to succeed and prosper!
Consider the Following: Real Estate Centric solutions: Buy Now, buy as much as you can. Why? Let’s Talk. We begin by addressing the top 3 questions:
1) Why? Properties continue to appreciate each year, due to supply / demand imbalance. This increase tends to rise faster than money we can save. I have decades deep SFR data for every county in the USA.
2) What about the HIGH interest rates? In one aspect, this benefit today’s buyers, as it takes out speculative pricing and keeps much of the competition on the sidelines, waiting.
3) What about future interest rate drops? As interest rates drop many Buyers sitting on the sidelines will enter the market. This will drive rates of appreciation higher, bring more multiple offers, and over-bidding of price. With buying sooner you will benefit from the lower interest rates and potential benefits of lower loan to value percentages.
If these ideas sound good, let’s start talking today.
Making your future brighter today & tomorrow.
What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. One worthy and profitable of your efforts and valuable time.
Tools: The band of interesting associates we have is very broad. From no monthly repayment loans (think equity share and reverse mortgage 2nd’s for over 55), to our whole life guys are pulling low double digit returns, to equity investors seeing mid to upper teen returns.. Our consulting is investment agnostic.. what works best for YOU?
Our Efforts: To be insightful and practical. Working with you, to find answers, matched with carefully planned timing. Priority: Being straight forward, with no short cuts.
Truly, success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate, offering time-tested insights and experience. Best, I love to see you achieve your goals. Call us.
We are the professional team who stands with you.
Ready, with feet on the ground, and forward looking !!
Thank you and a special blessing as we look forward to Thanksgiving.
