Good morning to Fall and cooler weather;
Service and Preparation
with promising outcomes
Summer news is quiet while MSM seeks the more dramatic. Good News: We remain steady and consistent for you, especially those awaiting lower mortgage rates. Now is the time to prepare for this unique opportunity – after a quiet Summer. If you are ready to act, let’s start preparation today. Call us. I look forward to our first discussion, even with a few of your friends waiting to Buy or Refinance. Let’s talk the pricing benefits of early preparation.
One goal: Identify strengths and weakness of one’s finance. This gives us time to overcome any possible trouble, an added plus to the consulting side of our specialty – real estate finance. A needed tool for building strategies-of-success, with an easy to follow trajectory of success.
The range of our conversation:
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- Myths vs. Market Realities
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- The Build
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- Clarifying Investment Plans
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- Why Each Person / Plan is Unique
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- The Need for Advice, believing in success.
Goal: Turning the complex, into your personal success.
Michael Ryan stand with you
Let’s talk: Is now the time to setup a 1/2 hour initial chat? Let’s make it easy. Goto: michael-ryan.com to set a time best for you – with no obligations. It is easy. You schedule the time best for you – I call you. It takes all the pressure off. I look forward to our first, hello.
Then the fun begins as we discuss the benefits of our consulting services. The goal: To become your advocate in building your real estate future. To this, I will present tools and options, so you can decide the best investment path to walk. In this, My Promise: If the results are not what is expected, a refund is offered. Who other than Michael Ryan makes such an offer.
your ‘Asset Optimization specialist’
MARKET NEWS
Economy: Along with the recent Federal Reserve meeting, we have more information. Head of the CBO, Phill Swagel, reports “their” current 3-year projection on the economy. Not necessarily my views – we await a correction – yet good to report such numbers. 1) GDP growth of 1.4 % in 2025, 2) Inflation of 3.1 %, 3) Tariffs reducing federal debt by 4 Trillion over 10 years and 5) Unemployment rate (U-3) rising from current 4.3 % to 4.5 % by year end.
Good News: US GDP is in positive territory, after negative first quarter.
Jobs: As last year, after the Federal Reserve reduced rates, the following unemployment reports came in strong. Strong being a lower number of initial claims. Both last year and this year, interest rates retraced higher – this year more in response to risk associated with a government shut down.
WATCH: Fed’s focus’ will be on weekly job numbers. They will impact interest rates. Plus: Upcoming JOBS report will also impact near term Fed policy on interest rates.
Federal Reserve Policy: There is a new voting member of the Fed – Stephen Miran. He leans toward lower rates. Additionally, the Chicago Fed has created a new twice-a-month labor report named, CHURN (Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast). It hopes to be a more forward-looking, comprehensive indicator. This corresponds to more Fed governors looking to shift focus from inflation to the labor markets – a primary responsibility of the Fed.
Housing – New Home Sales: BEFORE the recent drop in rates, New Home sales jumped. Further, previous month numbers adjusted up. Along with increased activity, also comes my expected – increase in home price. Median prices, though not the best of numbers, shows up 5%, month-over-month. Takes us to +2 %, year-over-year. With this is a dramatic drop in reported months supply – from 9 months to 7 1/2. Interesting and hopefully a new trend.
To this, consider “existing home sales”. They posted a number much better than market expectations. Expectations were for August sales to be down 1.5 %. Instead, only down 0.2 %. Further positive: Current inventory is in the ‘Normal Market’ level with 4.6 months of supply.
Inflation: PCE Report (Personal Consumer Expenditures) – favorite measure of the Federal Reserve – met market expectations of 2.7%, year-over-year, with a core reading of 2.9%. Good numbers, yet still above Fed goal of 2 %. Within this number, is the “shelter” component – a number we speak to continually. It added near 0.3 %. Another interesting number is “portfolio management” – fees for money management – also added 0.3 %. It‘s a bit of a funny number based upon rising stocks. Much the same, as a property manager making more money if rents increase, though the actual percentage did not.
Curious: Lower rates and lower construction costs, will increase housing supply and thereby stabilize, even lower, the “shelter” component.
The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly
The Good: San Mateo, Santa Clara and San Francisco counties round out numbers 2, 3 and 4 for annual wage growth. Coming in at 11, 7 and 2 % wage growth respectively. 1st Q 2024 vs 1st Q 2025.
The Bad: California data center growth. It is hindered by Sacramento having to approve anything 100 MW or larger. In comparison, CA has 6 % of data centers, whereas Northern Virginia has 43 %. Why? Higher costs: land, construction and energy. This even though rental rates are on par. Worse, this does not consider the huge lead time needed to get energy.
And, the Ugly: Good becoming Ugly. Consumer spending is up, with top 10 % of earners eking out an increase of 1 % – half of consumer spending. Where did the MSM puts is focus. They ask, what “if” the top 10 % decide to pull back’.. blah blah, not noticing restaurants posted increases, as did online shopping. They then pinpoint increasing consumer delinquency. While not mentioning, current default numbers are still below the average line? Gad, they present misery, as if it abounds. Consider a Super Bowl winning coach, who then complains about not scoring enough points. This is how the news is being sold to us. I believe this attitude affects consumer confidence and consumer sentiment. This is a sad and harmful attitude, with little constructive purpose. Let us, instead, stand tall and proud, giving patience not panic.
Perspective
Where are you moving with your life plan? For me, Real Estate is an excellent way to diversify one’s portfolio and prepare for retirement. Small business ownership runs a close second. In both, my role is to ask the ‘why’ questions and then help in determining how to achieve it. I provide differing tools to optimize your path to success.
Good News:
Homeownership still ranks as one of the top wealth building tools in America.
In this we can help. We offer a complete set of tools to help you decide what is best for you.
Financial Capabilities: Together, we will focus on your financial capabilities, your historical patterns, and tomorrow’s potentials. Why? Because like many, I too, learned from failures and successes. I learned the importance of self-discipline and solid preparation – both keys of success. Goal: Bringing together dreams, potential, and possibilities into one’s living reality. A unique, hard-earned approach designed to serve you. One that is challenging and helps overcome fears. Call today. We are here to help.
Secret of Leverage: Is there a secret about homeownership with long-term benefits offering a pleasant surprise? Yes. The advantage is what is called leverage. Let’s talk. Call now.
As you look ahead to your tomorrow.
Let’s review options and realistic opportunities.
Readiness, Planning and Preparation
I rarely change this section. Yes, I do repeat it, for each month interest in real estate changes or becomes receptive. Is this your month? The basics for investing can be straight forward, with good coaching.
Our goal: Finding the best path to success and discuss the discipline to stay the course. It begins when you make the first call. I am ready. Let’s talk today.
Our strategies: Straight forward, logical, and built on sound reasoning. A doctorate in finance is not prerequisite.
Should one invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, business, insurance, etc.? Each person has a different view, a different comfort level and sense of risk vs reward. Such is the heart of the market place and key to one’s “planning and preparation”. To this, we offer clients our expertise and experience, to complement their perspective. Our goal: Bring meaningful options designed to enhance one’s desires with market realities. Call today. Let’s set a time.
Why Call Mike
What We Do – What We Offer – Why We Are Here
We believe in real estate as a good measure of long term success. While we do NOT ignore other types of investments, I love the more stable approach of buying and investing. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize options most feasible for you. We are always ready to help. It is how we built so many trusting relationships – growing wealth and securing the future.
Small Business: We love small business and provide a full array of financing tools.
Residential / Commercial: We offer strong lenders with a complete package of lending options.
Retirement Strategies: Like myself, as we mature, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our efforts are to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.
Purchase Options for Investment Properties: We finance over most of the Nation investment property purchases. Little known loans requiring very limited documentation – NO income tax returns. The loans are based upon the properties cash flow. Curious? Call. Investing out of the area is not rocket science.. Yet you do need to have some knowledge. Let us fill in the blanks for you to succeed and prosper!
Consider the Following: Real Estate Centric solutions: Buy Now, buy as much as you can. Why? Let’s Talk. We begin by addressing the top 3 questions:
1) Why? Properties continue to appreciate each year, due to supply / demand imbalance. This increase tends to rise faster than money we can save. I have decades deep SFR data for every county in the USA.
2) What about the HIGH interest rates? In one aspect, this benefit today’s buyers, as it takes out speculative pricing and keeps much of the competition on the sidelines, waiting.
3) What about future interest rate drops? As interest rates drop many Buyers sitting on the sidelines will enter the market. This will drive rates of appreciation higher, bring more multiple offers, and over-bidding of price. With buying sooner you will benefit from the lower interest rates and potential benefits of lower loan to value percentages.
If these ideas sound good, let’s start talking today.
Making your future brighter today & tomorrow.
What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. One worthy and profitable of your efforts and valuable time.
Tools: The band of interesting associates we have is very broad. From no monthly repayment loans (think equity share and reverse mortgage 2nd’s for over 55), to our whole life guys are pulling low double digit returns, to equity investors seeing mid to upper teen returns.. Our consulting is investment agnostic.. what works best for YOU?
Our Efforts: To be insightful and practical. Working with you, to find answers, matched with carefully planned timing. Priority: Being straight forward, with no short cuts.
Truly, success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate, offering time-tested insights and experience. Best, I love to see you achieve your goals. Call us.
We are the professional team who stands with you.
Ready, with feet on the ground, and forward looking !!
Thank you and special blessings for the beauty of the Fall Season.
