Good morning to the Holiday Season, in the spirit of love,
I trust this letter finds you in the good spirits from the Thanksgiving Holiday.
As we enter the last month of this year, let’s begin:
Federal Reserve: As expected, the purchase slowdown is underway. The guidance is to hit zero in the middle of 2022, before any raising of rates, what they directly control. Key: Such guidance will not happen in a vacuum. They will be watchful of DC regulations, spending and tax politics, and world events.
Big Question: Inflation. In the ways of numbers, the pace of change may not prove most helpful as to what is actually occurring. Unravelling the CoVid confusion – and political cross-talk – will take time and needs carefully watchfulness. There is an understood scenario that a year from now, as an over-reaction, the exact opposite of what is expected, could happen. In this, one could discover deflationary numbers triggering a recession – over-supply, stagnant growth, and unhealthy rates.
With statistics, one must always be aware of how a standard interpretation can mis-lead.
The Bottom Line: Interest Rates ARE Hedging Upwards
Key to Success: Being well prepared, knowing tomorrow’s dreams begin today. This approach lets the Realtor and Seller know your readiness and commitment. Often, Buyers express concerns about the “Cash buyer”. Yet most Sellers prefer, even like, the hands-on experience of the more traditional Home Buyer. Homes are personal and families are part of the American heritage.
Be ready today. A strong loan application and winning attitude.
This strengthens your Realtors efforts in selling you, and being sure
your offer becomes the winning offer. Being most prepared is sound advice.
Call today and let’s prepare for the Fall Season of Buyers Fun.
Interesting News We Can Use
Forbearance and Foreclosures: Short note. We still make new loans for those who maybe in and entering into the foreclosure process. No pretty, but saving the home.
Inflation and Rates: New discussions concerning yield-spreads. After showing negative in the yield-spread between the 2-year and the 10-year in November of 2019, some saw signs of recession, even before CoVid. For me, this was a more knee-jerk than real. Soon after, as anticipated, the spread widened to 1 1/2 % as of April 2021. As of July of this year, the spread has closed to a 1% and has trended sideways. And with the narrowing comes the usual talk of ‘pending recession’ around the corner. For now, this should not be a concern.
With inflation, concerns grow for this spread to further tighten, pointing to a looming recession or a possible Carter-styled stagnation. Pre-Covid, one might so speculate. Today, one needs to be careful. Domestics driven fears and the world stage are far too complex and complicated to out guess the future.
The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly
THE GOOD: Compared to 1/1/19, inflation-adjusted US purchases of services has recovered. This is good news. The problem: Pent up demand and desire to make up for lost opportunities far out paced expectations. Purchases of goods are up by almost 20%! Current US activity denies any current day discussion of stagflation. Instead, we find strong demand bumping up against supply chain problems and productions issues, exacerbated by a profound worker shortage. Thus more money chasing a demand not keeping pace. The concern: Sharp price increases to stem demand. Let’s hopedomestic policy does not further complicate and distort the problem of too much cash, to few supples.
THE BAD: Pushing economic numbers up, based on wage inflation, supply-chain inflation, insurance costs – increasing near 10 % per year – that do not transfer to increased cash-flows. The Question: How long can this imbalance of numbers – family or Small Business – continue without some fall out. The Bad is if we are caught not being watchful, undisciplined, with a lack of readiness to respond. This includes each of us, Small Business, and especially DC politics and Fed Reserve policy. Let’s hold each of ourselves accountable to each other, as well as to this great nation of great people.
THE UGLY: Politicians not trusting people and their common sense, whether the common cold, Sars-CoVid2, flu or Pneumonia. “We the People” know what to do. When feeling poor, we keep our distance, stay home, and seek medical advice. Not too hard to figure. We do know how to find answers and seek solutions that actually work. With this, we learn to tune-out the self-promoting ways of DC / State politicians. Instead, more and more, we trust our ability to step back, engage the brain, and find honest solutions, that work. This is why we continue to stand, in the midst of tough times and difficult choices. It is how we will defeat the fears of CoVid-19, and why so-called DC experts, never will.
planning and preparation
We are in a wait and see mode. Politicians talks, news makes up stories, and in the end little is helpful for disciplined planning. Whether it be infrastructure, massive debt spending, capital gains tax rates, regulations, etc., we have limited specifics on any of it, much less its proper use. Will it add to needed liquidity or restrict it, just when we need it most? This intended confusion brings delay, slows the movement of money, and interferes with the proper allocation of scarce resources. Thus, more and more we need to work together to begin careful preparation and planning. To stay ahead and never fall behind. It is an excellent opportunity to sharpen our tools, as we ready ourselves to act with determined decisiveness. It is how to best address the what “ifs”, yet fully unraveled. It is how one stays in a state of readiness, and gets the jump on possible competitors. Far better than waiting, is to work on preparation, today!!!
What We Do – Why We Are Here – Why call Mike
We know how to explore and carefully examine the many options open to real estate. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize what is most feasible for you. It is how we build a trust relationship with you as you set your goals on building wealth and a secure future for you and your family.
Small Business: We love small business and provide loans offering a full array of financing.
Residential and Commercial: We offer strong lenders and a full package of lending options.
Tax-deferral strategies: As one’s investment portfolio changes or changes are anticipated, a solid suggestion is to keep update as to changes in tax law. At the same time, ask yourself, “pay taxes now” or instead, “defer projected capital gains tax”? If you want to keep your capital working for you, today, let’s discuss best available options and needed professional to best meet your goals.
The Question: Why payout up to hundreds of thousands of dollars today, when you have the options, tools, and ability to keep your hard earned money working for you and your estate today. If it is time to talk, to plan ahead, let start today, I am ready. Call today.
What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to a time-tested strategy able to keep your money, working for you. For me, this sounds like a good and worthy opportunity to keep your cash, and build wealth. It is a profitable use of valuable time. Let’s talk.
Tools: We offer proven tools and methods for highly appreciated holdings. It is a strategy of success that keeps your cash in your proven hands. With this, we offer our highly qualified and knowledgable professionals. This combination is the defining key to your success.
Retirement: Like myself, as we age, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about a too soon, tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our effort is to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.
Be insightful and practical.
To Work with you, finding the best answers and solutions.
Straight Forward and No short cuts.
Success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate, with the needed insight and experience for success. And I love my clients to reach their goals. Call us – the professional team who stands with you. Call today. We are ready.
Thank you and continued blessings.