February Letter From My Heart – Perspective is everything: data heavy

Good morning with Valentines Day approaching,

Data concerning last year keeps pouring in with most providing an optimistic outlook. To make this information helpful, we will group the data together in bite size pieces.

However, before making predictions for this year, it is best wait for more details as to the President’s plans on: tax policy, regulations, trade policy, infrastructure, and health care. It reminds me of a quote worthy of mention, as regards our future economy: “The last 8 months of the year will be dependent upon the first 4 months”.

Quite helpful, especially considering the moving parts of Washington D.C. governing: New President with a “new” vision, Congressional in-fighting, International hotspots, and the Federal Reserve. As more is known, the better prepared we will be to provide you insight and helpful guidance, as to the here and now.

All of this is important in our conversations with you. For what you believe is critical to any successful look ahead. How we address your risk, fears and concerns, and your desired expectations is key to finding the right mortgage for you. So please, keep calling, keep asking. Building a trust relationship with you, your family, and your future, is what we are all about. Call today.

Summarizing Year-End Data for Year 2015

Real Estate related data-points:

  • Foreclosure levels: Down 30 % from 2014

  • New home starts: Running about 15 % growth rate. (New home construction about 10 % of the housing sale market)

  • Inventory levels: Nationwide, numbers are at 17 year lows

  • Home Sales: Full year, 2016 vs 2015, a positive growth of 3.7 %

US Economic related data-points:

  • Big questions: Tax and spending policies, regulations, Federal Reserve, the Supreme Court.

  • Policy Bias of the Fed Board: More policy neutral. Within the voting members, 2016 saw a shift from: 5 Dove, 2 Centrist, and 3 Hawk, to 5 Dove, 4 Centrist, and 1 Hawk. in 2017. What does this mean? As we enter 2017, the Federal Reserve voting board may prove to be in a more “wait-and-see” approach, when considering any rate change. They too, want to see things unfold.

  • US Labor Force Participation Rate: It is stabilizing, after hitting bottom late in 2015 at 61.3 %. Late 2016 saw an upward move to 62.7 %.

  • NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses): In August 2015, 12 % of business held a positive perspective about the economy. Today, the number is above 50 % – highest since 2004. A good sign of business expansion.

International economic related data-points:

  • Consider “Brexit”, Russian movements in Eastern Europe, even the Italian banking challenges. Of them, I found noteworthy the number of EU members pretty much acting alone – not holding to EU mandated debt limits or immigration mandates. The fact the EU is, for the most part, staying silent, is most intriguing.

  • Italy’s bank problems, French elections, and later this year elections in Germany. In the face of a troubled immigration policy are puzzle questions with economic impact.

Summarizing: We begin 2017 stronger than the start of 2016. This includes an across the board uptick in US confidence – consumer sentiment index, independent businesses index, and PMI Manufacturing index. The questions are: 1) Will International concerns have a positive impact on the US business climate? and 2) How will all of this effect consumer spending? Keeping in mind this represents 70 % of our annual GDP.

Looking Ahead

We strive to have no specific opinion of the market. Instead ours is to seek data and conversation from many experts, having contrasting insight and expertise. Your confidence and trust in us, is paramount, as we share our thoughts with you – even when being bold. Our goal is to be the real estate financing component of your success story, whether Residential, Commercial, or Small Business. We offer dozens of lending partners, capable and ready to lend, especially for the $2.5 M and smaller loan size.

With our expertise, we can help you build a safe and secure strategy of success – even if others say no. Let’s start today. 2017 should be a good year to own real estate.

Have a fabulous day, as we are look forward to our next conversation.

We are ever, gratefully yours.

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