Your February 2022 Letter From My Heart, with the Good Bad n’ Ugly

Good morning to the New Year, 

I trust this letter finds you in the best of spirits and excited about your new year prospects! 

Federal Reserve: The much discussed “tapering” is underway. At the same time, results from last weeks meeting is nebulous at best. It kept the markets guessing. There is focus on how to fight inflation, while recognizing the many cross-currents needing more time to better “understand”. Some suggest by raising key short-term rates you can help calm inflation fears and may even stabilize or lower mortgage rates. Yet, at the same time, any reducing of the Fed balance sheet, will reduce supply and liquidity of money. This in turn, could bring an increase in mortgage rates.  Key: Keep watching how the actual market place responds. The world is often surprising, even shocking. Further, this guidance can only best guess DC spending and government regulations, let alone tax increases. 

Big Question: Inflation – domestic and foreign. We expect the numbers to continue to increase through February, then flattening, with some retracing to follow. The Feds are watching the gas pump. 

Bottom Line: 

Interest Rates ARE Hedging Upwards – Act now

Key to Success: Being well prepared is key to letting the Realtor and Seller know your readiness and commitment. It is the first step in turning dreams into your reality. Also, Buyers often express concerns about the “All Cash buyer”. Yet most Sellers like – even prefer – the hands-on experience of the more traditional Home Buyer. Homes are personal and families are part of the American heritage.

Be ready today. A strong loan application is a winning attitude.

It strengthens your Realtors efforts in selling you, and best helps

your offer to be the winning offer. Being best prepared is sound advice. 

Bottom Line:

Call today and let’s prepare for the Spring Buying Season Today.

Interesting News We Can Use

New Loan Limits: With the continued increases in property values, we have new conforming – conventional loan limits.  $ 647,200 for conforming, single family residences. This number goes up to $ 970,800, in higher cost Counties. Lets talk now. A great window of opportunity for Spring buying. 

Forbearance and Foreclosures: Good News. The numbers remain very low – great for homeowners. And if you are or might be entering foreclosure, we can still make new loans. Not always pretty, but the priority is preservation – Saving your home. Let’s talk.

Inflation and Rates: Yield-spreads are back in the news. After showing a negative yield-spread between the 2-year and the 10-year, in November of 2019, came the calls of a domesday “recession”. The spreads continue to move closer, yet a ways to go before the infamous negative. We remain in a post-Covid state of confusion where patience and careful preparation is key to success. And we can help. Call us and let’s talk about 2022. Tricky for the Fed, tricky for all of us. Seek good planning.

Housing: 2022 Preview.  Supply vs Demand is key to home pricing. Short supply is with us and will continue.  Q: Will higher rates effect market value.  Answer: Early in the cycle, people often panic about rising rates, bringing a short term bump in demand and values. What follows is what provides a clear picture about future events. My best estimate, marginal impact if employment stays healthy.

The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly

THE GOOD: Two this month:

1) Organizations in New York that throw out more than two tons of food each week will be required to donate or compost said waste under new legislation. The hope is to aid 2.2 million people struggling with food insecurity. It should also cut emissions from the millions of tons of food waste produced.

2) UNICEF: Updated trend data on global child mortality gives really good news. Despite fears the pandemic would worsen the trend, just the opposite happened. Child mortality in year 2020, actually decreased to 37 deaths per 1,000 live births. Even better: Longer term trends for the under five mortality has fallen more than 50%, since 2000.

THE BAD: Workplace Illness is negatively impacting the supply-chain. This means lower GDP. During the four calendar years before 2020 5.5 million employed persons, each day, didn’t go to work. With the arrival of CoVid in 2020, the number jumped to 6.9 million persons – each day. Fortunately this number declined In 2021, to 6 million. Still elevated, but an improvement. Some estimate the number directly attributable to CoVid-19 to be 500,000. This large increase directly hurt supply chains. This in turn, boosts inflation and reduces GDP. Lets hope the Fed does not overreact, as this pandemic becomes endemic, one more similar to the flu or cold season. 

THE UGLY: Various cities continue to push back on new State rules concerning ADU’s and increasing housing density. Some cities continue to deny permits that meet the legal requirement for adding an ADU or secondary unit. The Ugly: The court time and expense, to determine and clarify the priority of State rules vs. City rules. Likely a long struggle, with broad reaching impacts. 

Planning and Preparation 

Are our market peaking – stocks, bonds, real estate? Each of us has a different view and it is what makes the market. It’s what presents opportunities and key to our planning and preparing for your tomorrow. With this, we strive to meet you where you are. Our goal is to bring to you, a full a set of solutions, ones meant to enhance your view of the market, with a full array of choices.

What We Do – Why We Are Here – Why call Mike

We know how to explore and carefully examine the many options open to real estate. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize what is most feasible for you. It is how we build a trust relationship with you, as you set your goals on building wealth and a secure future for you and your family. 

Small Business: We love small business and provide loans offering a full array of financing.

Residential and Commercial: We offer strong lenders and a completer package of lending options.

Tax-deferral strategies:  Most investment portfolio are dynamic in nature, subject to change or even surprise. Herein, a solid suggestion is to keep updated, as to changes in tax law. This comes with a key question: Pay taxes now or keep your cash working working for you by, “deferring projected capital gains tax”? If keeping your capital working for you, sounds good, let’s talk. Let’s discuss the best available options and plans of approach. Best: We have the professional team who know how to bring it all together. Details matter and they know all details. 

So: Why payout up to hundreds of thousands of dollars – even Millions – today, when you have the ways and means to keep your hard earned money working for you and your estate. If it is time to talk, to plan ahead, let start today, I am ready. Call today, planning income tax strategy is more important today, than ever. With new laws to stop you from passing highly appreciated real estate onto your heirs, to no longer benefit from low Prop 13 tax basis, it is time act. Time to be prepared.

 What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. For me, this presents a solid opportunity to keep your cash and build wealth. One that is worthy and a profitable use of your valuable time. Let’s talk. 

Tools: We offer multiple proven tools and methods for highly appreciated holdings. These strategies-of-success help keep your cash, in your proven hands. With this, we offer our highly qualified and knowledgable professionals. This combination is the defining key to your success. 

Retirement: Like myself, as we age, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about a too soon, tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our effort is to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.

Our Purpose:

Be insightful and practical. 

To Work with you, finding the best answers and solutions. 

Straight Forward and No short cuts. 

Success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate. I have the needed insight and experience for success. Best, I love to see my clients achieve their goals. Call us – the professional team who stands with you. Call today. We are ready. 

Thank you and continued blessings.