Your February 2023 Letter From My Heart, with the Good Bad n’ Ugly

Good morning to February – Preparation Month; 

Don’t Wait – Prepare Today !!

Home buying continues

Really Good News for Michael Ryan & Associates:

I have been selected to host a national TV show. Its focus will be: Real Estate, Lifestyle, and Community in Silicon Valley. The show’s producers are EMMY nominated and for me, a marvelous opportunity, one I want to share with you. It is an honor to be a so chosen. 

The first airing will be in March, and when the air times are announced, I will let you know. The good news: It will be available on You Tube, here is the link:

As to specifics, the show will highlight the success stories of the people of Silicon Valley. The executive producer is looking to me to interview and share the stories of those voices that speak to the success story called, the Silicon Valley. It will spotlight what makes Silicon Valley home for the innovative, hard working, creative thinkers; its mover and shakers, CEO’s, and philanthropists, etc. It will speak with real people and their vision for tomorrow. 

The concept has been well received, gaining an EMMY nomination in another real estate market. In will also be available on CABLE, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, and Roku.

Real Estate News that Tracks Our Market.

Recent News and Expectations for 2023:

– GDP: 1st estimate for 4th Quarter is UP 2.9 %. Slow, but not the feared negative growth. Yet retail sales were off 1 % in December, after strong early sales in October and November. Post Christmas sales figures will prove insightful. 

– Unemployment: New claims numbers are below 200 K per week, over the past few weeks, indicating continued strength. The other side of the story: Slow increase in those continuing to collect benefits. It suggests those laid off are finding it harder to get a new job. 

– Surprise to the upside: December Durable Goods orders were up a wonderful 5.6 %. Good news for the economy, yet it may confuse the Federal Reserve wanting to cool off supply. For me, to blame the consumer is wrong, when lack of supply, due to Covid, was the culprit. 

Bottom Line: Start Preparing Today 

Interest Rates Are Likely nearing a Peak

Key to Success: Preparation and Readiness. Let your Realtor – and the Seller – know of your readiness and commitment to buy. It is a strong step in turning your dreams into reality. For certain, don’t let the “All Cash buyer” be of concerning. Most Sellers tend to prefer the real life experience of a traditional Home Buyer. Why? Because Homes are personal and family is key to the American heritage.

Let’s Talk Today

Be ready today. A strong loan application is a winning attitude.

It strengthens your Realtors efforts in selling you and your offer 

as the winning offer. Being “best” prepared is sound advice.

Interesting News We Can Use

Forbearance and Foreclosures: Good News. Numbers remain very low – good news for homeowners. Yet, if foreclosure is a your possibility, a new loan is possible. Not always pretty, but not if the priority is Saving your home. Let’s talk. Sooner the better.

Interest Rates: They generally run in the same direction as inflation. However, from 2020 – 2022, mortgage rates disconnected from the inflation curve. Why? Because the Federal Reserve entered into the free-markets, and became a buyer of mortgages. Outcome: They pumped excess money into the economy, that became a trigger point for inflation, then triggered by the CoVid money machine. Quite the mess. We are now seeing a slight drop in interest rates which is good news, as we prepare for the Spring Time Buying Season. Here is why.: 

Consider Conventional loans: The current spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year treasuries has not been this wide since 2008 and early 2020. The Good News: Both times, the gap then narrowed and mortgage rates eased. If history repeats, good news for Spring Buying. 

Looking to Buy or Invest this Spring Season ?

Call today and begin early preparation now.. 

It keeps your ready and flexible. It is key. 

The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly

THE Good: Working less, yet more wealth.  We work less than in the past. In 1965, the average workweek for the non-salaried was 38.6 hours – close to the mythical 40-hour workweek. Since then, we work less hours, and yet we are wealthier. 1975, it was 36 hours; in 1985 it fell to 34.9; in 1995 to 34.3; and by 2005 at 33.8 hours/week! It has now leveled off in 2022 at 34 hours/week. The next expected move will be to a 32-hour workweek, composed of four 8-hour days. Technological innovations will likely help make this possible. 

 More Good News: Homeless Veterans. There has been an 11% decline in the number of homeless veterans in the United States since 2020. This is the biggest fall in more than five years and thanks to additional efforts launched in 2022 the goal is to provide shelter for every homeless veteran by years end. Amen, as I am thankful knowing, since 2010, these overall numbers have fallen by 55.3%. 

THE BAD: A constant barrage of headlines news: Real Estate is Crashing, in order to trigger another round of emotional fears. Stop already. In response to Fed Policy, ‘Median’ home price, nationwide, dropped 3.7 % last month. Let’s also remember, December is traditionally a slow month for real estate. Moreover, the number of homes available for sale stayed flat at 461,000, while new contracts – in December – increased 2.3 %.

Let’s also review “Supply and Demand”. Homebuilders are not over building. They are in-line with new household creations. With this, “Median” home price speaks to a broad based decline whereby fewer high-end homes are selling, with more sales in entry level housing. Median price is not a valued measures of actual market realities and seldom well explained. 

Moreover, real estate is local. We can have areas showing strong price hold, and others with prices softening. At the same time, we recently had rapid acceleration of real estate prices, driven by the Fed caused “free” money. But this cannot be sustained and some lowering of prices is actually a healthy, needed check – not a cause of baseless panic. Time will tell.

THE UGLY: Government interference. In discussing future home values and appreciation, understanding mortgage rates become critical for Buyers and Sellers. With this, are the contrasting factors: Headwinds: 1) Global quantitative tightening – central banks not buying – creating a liquidity crisis; 2) Risks of stagflation or deep recession; 3) lack of investments, 4) excess retail inventory, and 5) Refilling US emergency oil reserve – lowest level since 1984. The Tailwinds: deflation due to demand destruction, particularly in energy and commodities. Black Swan events: South China Sea, Ukraine, and gain-of-function viruses. 

Planning and Preparation 

Should one invest in stocks, bonds, real estate? Each person has a different view, often based upon comfort levels and sense of risk / reward. It is what we call the market place. It is key to one’s “planning and preparation”. It is here, we bring our expertise and experience. Our efforts are to complement your perspective. Our goal: Bring a full range of meaningful options that enhance your vision, based upon todays market realities. Call today. Let’s set a time. 

Why call Mike

What We Do – Why We Are Here

We know how to explore and carefully examine the many available real estate options. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize the most feasible. It is how we build a trusted relationship with you, as you grow your wealth and secure a solid future – for you and your family. 

Small Business: We love small business and provide loans offering a full array of financing.

Residential / Commercial: We offer strong lenders and a complete package of lending options.

Tax-deferral strategies:  Investment portfolio tend to be dynamic in nature, subject to change and surprise. It is why it is important to keep updated, as to tax law. Herein, is a key question: Pay taxes today or keep your cash, working for you? How? By “deferring projected capital gains tax”? And if keeping your capital – working for you – sounds good, let’s talk. Let’s discuss the best available options and plans-of-approach. Best: We have the professional team who know how to bring it all together. Details matter and they know all the small details. 

Why: Why payout up to hundreds of thousands of dollars – even Millions – when there are tools to keep your hard earned money working for you – and your estate. Interested? If so, now maybe a good time to talk – to start planning for tomorrow. Tax planning is a good strategy, especially with new laws wanting to stop you from passing highly appreciated real estate, onto your heirs. Let’s talk. Your estate matters.

What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. For me, this presents a solid opportunity to keep your cash and build wealth. One that is worthy and a profitable use of your valuable time. Let’s talk. 

Tools: We offer multiple tools and proven methods for highly appreciated holdings. The goal: Keeping your cash in your proven hands. Our team offers highly qualified and knowledgable professionals, are ready to make it happen. 

Retirement: Like myself, as we mature, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about a too soon, tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our effort is to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.

Our Purpose:

Be insightful and practical. 

To Work with you, finding the best answers and solutions.

Being Straight Forward with No Short Cuts. 

Success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate. I offer time-tested insights and experience. Best, I love to see my clients achieve their goals. Call us – the professional team who stands with you. Call today. We are ready. 

Thank you and continued blessings.

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