Your November 2021 Letter From My Heart, with the Good Bad n’ Ugly

Good morning to the welcomed rain, 

Untold stories – New Expectations 

Speculation on the economy, continues to delight the press. With it, a wide-range of words called news. 

More Good News: Talk of some cooling of appreciation is not ‘Bad’. It helps keep things in balance, with the benefit of finding sustainable, long-term value. Such workings is the beauty of a free market. 

Federal Reserve: Taper tantrums and fears of slowing. Expectations continue the Fed will slow their pace of buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasury bills. This as a tool to support our markets. It adds needed cash and provides liquidity, especially during times of unexpected stress. The market is expecting the Fed to drop its’ buying by near half, from its current 150B per month. Yet with the continued supply-chain – and production – problem, how this plays out will prove interesting. You need “production” to provide supply, in order to ease inflation. If so, the market may need more cash – not less. Especially if politicians want more of your money. Time will tell.

Big Question: Are current jumps in inflation, mostly transitory or more an issue of “supply and production” not quickly fixed. The November Fed meeting may provide insight. For myself, I believe the supply-chain / production problem is real. Further, it will need to be carefully addressed by the Fed, free of political garbage. Their evaluations will impactrates and if needed, modify their efforts to reduce their balance sheet – called tapering. For me, liquidity is more the issue, than rates, alone.

The Bottom Line: Interest Rates Hedging Upwards

Key to Success: Being well prepared, knowing tomorrow’s dreams begin today. This approach lets the Realtor and Seller know your readiness and commitment. Often, Buyers express concerns about the “Cash buyer”. Yet most Sellers prefer, even like, the hands-on experience of the more traditional Home Buyer. Homes are personal and families are part of the American heritage.

Be ready today. A strong loan application and winning attitude.

This strengthens your Realtor’s efforts in selling you, and being sure 

your offer becomes the winning offer. Being most prepared is sound advice. 

Bottom Line:

Call today and let’s prepare for the Fall Season of Buyers Fun.

Interesting News We Can Use

Forbearance and Foreclosures: Some in the press love to talk of a rise in foreclosure and the emotional pain, as the measuring stick. Yet when seen with perspective, they remain spectacularly low. 

In 21Q3, lenders commenced foreclosures on 25,209 units. Traditionally they have numbered 40,000/month. In the best of months last year, foreclosures numbered as few as 4,000/month. Even better, just 1.4 million borrowers remain in foreclosure and this number is dropping rapidly. 

Not bad when you dig into the numbers.  25 % of those in forbearance, are making their payments.  90% in forbearance have a minimum of 10 % equity – an incentive to stay the course. What helps is knowing even if up to 200 thousand homes comes on the market, our inventory remains 4M units short of a ‘normal’ marketplace. Further, past due are now at the lowest level in 2 decades !

Inflation and Rates: Current yield-spread between the 5-year Treasury and the 30-year has narrowed, despite inflation fears. While the 5-year rate is up, in response to inflation, the 30-yr rate has barely budged. One suggests inflation is short-term in nature, but less of a concern long-term. It may even suggest the Fed could raise short-term rates as well, hoping to ease inflation. 

 Yet, the opposite maybe true, especially if this is a supply-chain problem matched with a serious production issue. Thus, inflation – in light of the consequences and confusions of CoVid – will not be quickly remedied, as the market need time to steady the ship and digest the fears of CoVid politics. Instead, may I suggest a careful steadiness and patience, along with a jump-start of the good old, pro-American work ethic. Can you tell, I believe in America and its unique place in history.

The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly

THE GOOD: During the back to school months, one always sees a jump in colds, the flu, and this year Covid, based on the PRC test. It is part of the normal process of children building their own natural immunity. My guess, this trend will continue, especially as we come to better identify the common cold, as similar in design to the CoVid-19 strain. Further, because it is closely associated with the much talked about coronaviruses, it can be easily confused as CoVid-SARS-2. And keep in mind, one’s immunity response to a common cold, can help one resist CoVid-19. In fact, University of Glasgow scientists say it appears cold-causing rhinovirus trumps coronavirus. Let’s hope this trend continues. 

THE BAD: Vaccine mandates only divide. Not a good situation, nor a good conversation. At the same time, I am in a quandary as to the CoVid support monies to individuals and families. There is an emotional tug. At the same time, if there are jobs and more jobs waiting, with businesses wanting to hire, the best emotional response is to get back to work. The BAD is to encourage, even tempt, people not to work. The emotional harm is long-term. We need each other and we need each other to work. This is playing out in the current percentage of those able to work, at the lowest level in a decade.

THE UGLY: Supply chain woes. Ships stacked up LA and Long Beach, while Oakland port sits with empty wharfs. Say What! With this UGLY, is the ugliness of the press playing politics with the people they claim to care about. This should be a Page 1 issues. This is UGLY because it can be solved. It does not need a year. Instead, it takes a public demanding, “fix it.” No more B.S. We need to stop being held hostage to the politics of deception, distraction, and low expectation. Christmas is at hand. 

planning and preparation 

We are in a wait and see mode. Politicians talks, news makes up stories, and in the end, little is helpful for disciplined planning. Whether it be infrastructure, massive debt spending, capital gains tax rates, regulations, etc., we have no specific details on anything – except it will take money out of an economy, in need of liquidity. This tends to cause us to delay, when instead we should be preparing and planning even more. It is time to sharpen our tools so we are even more ready and able to act with decisiveness. It is the best way do address: the what ifs, the how ways and possibilities, and how to make it happen. Far better than waiting with others, is to work on preparation, today!!!

What We Do – Why We Are Here – Why call Mike

We know how to explore and carefully examine the many options open to real estate. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize what is most feasible for you. It is how we build a trust relationship with you as you set your goals on building wealth and a secure future for you and your family. 

Small Business: We love small business and provide loans offering a full array of financing.

Residential and Commercial: We offer strong lenders and a full package of lending options.

Tax-deferral strategies:  As one’s investment portfolio changes or changes are anticipated, a solid suggestion is to keep update as to changes in tax law. At the same time, ask yourself, “pay taxes now” or instead, “defer projected capital gains tax”? If you want to keep your capital working for you, today, let’s discuss best available options and needed professional to best meet your goals. 

The Question: Why payout up to hundreds of thousands of dollars today, when you have the options, tools, and ability to keep your hard earned money working for you and your estate today. If it is time to talk, to plan ahead, let start today, I am ready. Call today. 

What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to a time-tested strategy able to keep your money, working for you. For me, this sounds like a good and worthy opportunity to keep your cash, and build wealth. It is a profitable use of valuable time. Let’s talk. 

Tools: We offer proven tools and methods for highly appreciated holdings. It is a strategy of success that keeps your cash in your proven hands. With this, we offer our highly qualified and knowledgable professionals. This combination is the defining key to your success. 

Retirement: Like myself, as we age, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about a too soon, tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our effort is to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.

Our Purpose:

Be insightful and practical. 

To Work with you, finding the best answers and solutions. 

Straight Forward and No short cuts. 

Success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate, with the needed insight and experience for success. And I love my clients to reach their goals. Call us – the professional team who stands with you. Call today. We are ready. 

Thank you and continued blessings.