Good morning to days of wary and worry;
What to watch in 2020 – Unintended Consequences and Outcomes
Political mumbo-jumbo or the future success of American Small Business – What is the priority? Let’s hope – for the sake of all America – our concern is the working family, the very heart of what makes us a great nation. I am thankful for the watchdog groups working hard to sustain the integrity of the PPP program. By their hard work, Wall Street players have returned money they received, to the program. Let’s keep the money where it is intended.
Let’s praise our Small Businesses. They again prove to be most creative and quick to adapt. How they have responded to consumer concerns about CoVid-19, is most commended. You have to love food vendors offering take-out and home delivery. Truly, Small Business speaks to the American spirit and are not easily defeated. They love what they do – it is their dream.
Unemployment rate: Our ‘internal’ calculations suggest just under 20 %. Concern: If PPP funds run out – how many more will file. Back of the napkin guess is 3% increase.
Covid 19: New York Times reports new case and deaths, are slowly dropping. This even though many more people are now being tested. Social distancing is working. 4 states are showing some increases, mostly minor. Keep the Space – Keep the Peace.
Home Refinances / Home Equity Loans: They will be huge for the next few months, as they should be. Please don’t wait. Start planning today. These special rates won’t last long. For now, I believe the Fed and DC politicians will keep doing what they are doing. But as the economy begins its restart, pent up demand will accelerate the need to raise the prime. Let’s talk today.
Act Now – Call today. Let’s lock in these rates.
Lower your payments and benefit from more cash in your pockets.
Commentary on stocks and bonds: Often after a major downturn, at the first sign of recovery, markets make a rapid jump in value. This is followed by a period of digestion and profit taking, before a more responsible up-leg based on actual profits and growth. Will history repeat? Each recovery is unique and we are in the initial recovery cycle, so watch volatility.
Economic Downturns: Love statistics, try these: In 1932, US Economy saw a 27 % down turn. 1947 saw a 15 % drop, with a 4% drop in the 2008 deep recession. Today’s swan driven market correction is expected to be 15 – 18 %.
Interest rates scream – take action now. I hope you do
Thinking of refinancing a balloon loan, investing in residential property, or in need of a sounding board – let’s talk. For many, now is the best of times to: refinance, modify one’s commercial portfolio, or strengthen the balance sheet. If so, let’s start today. Let’s explore the many advantages of a tax-deferred exchange? Give a ring or an email. It’s a great time to explore options and ideas.
Small Business Lending – Keeping Doors Open – Call us.
Sales continue. Yet be aware, I have heard of an appraisal having a “Covid-impact adjustment”. More conservative, yes, but valid? Time will tell, as markets adjust to our working at home. Might this mean less demand for office space? For me, home is home and not a work space.
At the same time, larger shopping centers may decide to remake their business model, as patterns of behavior shift. Covid may accelerate such investment decision in technology enhancements and infrastructure. How these decisions will be funded is key to winning.
As expected, commercial lending is tight. Underwriters and credit committees are trying to read the tea leaves in assessing the quality of future cash flows – tenants and business practices. Will the banking industry shift or will it be patient, awaiting to see if consumers will return to what is most familiar? Let’s talk. I would appreciate your insight, as we discuss options.
As a broker, we are a glimmering light in the difficulties of commercial lending. We are able to effectively review the market for lending institutions – and partners – ready to lend. In this fast-shifting market, we are a good doorway to bringing your loan application to the best lenders. We are here for you and ready to work – today – trusting our lender can help you.
The value of getting it done right, versus solely choosing a lender based upon price.
Be well, take care of others, and together, this too, shall pass.
Many blessings for family and friends.