Good morning to the fun Feast of October – Octoberfest;
I trust this fine Autumn day finds you in good health.
As we approach Halloween, voices of the so-called market timers and prognosticators are becoming more vocal, seeking hidden cracks in our economy. The most recent haunting speak to what is called, shipments. Historically it is considered a “leading” indicator and after ten months of declines, it is a number worth watching. Some suggest is may drive GDP numbers into negative territory in the 4th Q. Yet in response, we do see the EU and China doing what it can to grow their economies. As for our Federal Reserve, it is lowering rates and more important, adding liquidity.
Thus I tend not to be in the more negative camp, though a valid concern to be carefully watched.
Love to time the market? Now is a wonderful window of opportunity.
Refinance your ballon loan today.
Let’s begin saving you money and add cash to your balance sheet – CallToday.
My approach is to be straightforward – preferring data to blowing smoke – completing the job without headaches to you. Our review, plan, and execute style is proven. This winning strategy focuses on gather needed data, focusing on the loan program best fit for your needs, and execution in a timely fashion. We call this the WIN Strategy – a proven path to financial safety, security, and long-term success. Can I be of service to you?
Market News:
- Rents and NOI: Both increasing. Translation: With our low cap rates, a simple increase in rents creates a 20 X growth in value. Our low interest rates help with this equation.
- Cap Rates: Holding steady at the recent low’s. The exception is the rental market where some Cap Rates are slipping slightly. Why? Increasingly stringent rent control policies bring a level of uncertainty.
- Jobs: The US economy added 136,000 new jobs in September, bringing the six-month average of new jobs, down to 154,000 from 184,000 last year. Y-o-Y wage growth eased to 2.9%, slowest rate since July 2019. Manufacturing employment shrank, helping confirm the need for rate cuts. At the same time, unemployment hit 3.5% – best level since 12/69 – with upward revisions of 45,000 to July and August.
- Federal Reserve and the Yield Curve: While an inverted yield curve seldom sounds good, it’s significance in today’s markets, has changed. First, post-recession regulations now require banks to hold more bonds. Second, our Fed now holds trillions in Treasuries on its books. Third, EU regulated rates – needed to stimulate growth – have turned negative. How all these factors interact is a guess, with the question, how low and long can long-term rates stay at these levels. Thus today’s yield seems more influenced by government than free markets. Low rates are your opportunity.
- Housing: HELOC use is down dramatically – $500 B today vs. $1.1 T in 2007, with low delinquency rates of 1.82% – lower than 1st mortgages. At the same time, overall home owner equity has increased to $1.1 T, from $600 B in 2007.
Call us. We are here ready help and now is the time.
Success Stories
Growth, expansion, and trading hands, are all doing great!
One client recently received approval from the City of SF to bring their multi-state restaurant concept to the City. Next is the planning / approval process, with the financing ready to go.
Another client’s progress stalled by choosing the wrong lending program. Then the call to me. In the meantime, this delay provides an opportunity to seek out a loan product better matched to existing timelines. It also provides time to develop a revised solution-strategy, one able to get their Senior Living project back on schedule.
Another of our favorite clients is locking down a development project in San Francisco. We are now lining-out great mid to long-term financing. This will help put this project on the board and keep it there – regardless possible economic changes that may come.
Bottom Line: Falling interest rates open new doors and increased profitability for Small Business Commercial and Apartments. It is a great time to invest. It is also, a good time to add to the bottom line by refinancing existing loans and even consolidating debts. It is an especially good time to refinance any balloon loans. Call: Let’s talk about you getting more for your dollar, today.
Where are you? If Buying, we provide the financing to carry you through. If Selling, we have multiple ways of putting off / deferring Capital Gains taxes. If you are seeking to re-structure from a short-term sweat equity buildout to a long-term hold, call us. We hear you and are ready to help.
Benefits: We help our clients / investors achieve; improved cash flow, increased potential for future rental increases, and good budgeting of major expenses. We believe in investing in real estate – a quality asset for a diversified portfolio.
Good News: Our many lending partners are ready to write – today – traditional commercial loans, without surprises. Even more: Our lenders offer terms beyond the common 10-year term. Learn more – Call today.
KEY TO YOUR SUCCESS
Upfront planning, good preparation, and quality data. From here, we build a solid, strong loan request, one anticipating most lender questions. Lenders learned the importance of small details and love to ask questions. Good New: We know how and what they think. This insight is key to why my team should be a value team player in your investment mode. Details we know – Let’s talk.
New to Commercial Lending?
For years, we have new people coming into the marketplace, finding our commentary quite helpful. They appreciate both our straight forward action plan and ability to provide a quick review. Thank you again for your business – and your referrals – as I look forward to talking with you.
If you or someone you know, is considering investing in real estate for the first time, please call. This first call is a great way to address concerns, questions, and possibilities. For starters, here a list of 5 basic types of investing – plus a “quick-start” plan.
Getting Started: Types of investor activities, keeping on eye on cash flow, timing, and profit:
1) Wholesale – ‘Time and Knowledge’ vs. Money
2) Flipping – Value Added
3) Rentals – Long-term Wealth accumulation
4) Lending – Source of Lending Money
5) Agent – Representation – choose wisely
Game Plan: Quick steps:
1) Commitment: Begin taking action on a plan – one based on numbers, less emotions.
2) Write a Plan – Define your keys of Success and what you want
3) Avoid Costly Mistakes – first seek experienced, qualified, proven associates
4) Coach, Mentor or Accountability Partner
5) Competitive Advantage – Resources, Talent, Partners, Personality, Risk
6) Do the Math and add a 10% – 15% margin of safety.
Over the years, I have written and lived this list. It shares the benefit of my cumulative 30-years of time, expertise, and listening closely to my clients. For your success is my first priority.
You have heard me say it before:
It all starts with our first conversation.
Let’s talk today.
Many blessings for family and friends.