October Letter From My Heart

Good morning to Fall Season Buying,

The most recent event with The Norris Group, in Costa Mesa, was an “over-the-top” learning experience. It was a marvelous opportunity of hearing and listening to people, I feel, are very much in the know. They were far more concerned about our real life realities, than the childish politics of political leaders. Their insights of the Federal Reserve Board was illuminating.

These discussions keep one keenly aware small business, the middle-class, and real estate are the very core of our nation’s well-being. Something we need to remind our elected officials.

Great News:

Local real estate markets continue trending sideways,

as it carefully watches falling mortgage rates,

and typically lower prices during Fall buying.

The hope of our monthly commentary is to bring an overview of pertinent facts that overcome the emotional fears and bring clarity to conflicting headlines. This includes snippets concerning monetary policy, finance, economics, and even the politics of proposed confusion and distortion. With this, I offer my 2 cents as to what effects and interaction potentials with your tomorrow.

With this love of real estate, I am personally in the market, both as Buyer and Seller. I am a buyer / investor to sustain a long-term, diversified portfolio. I also buy real estate to update, modernize, then sell said properties, previously fallen from favor. It is here, you learn first hand, the absolute need to know how to evaluate locations and role of selecting the best lender.

The Good News: Such is the special sauce I bring to our conversations, when one is ready to buy or refinance. Is now the right time? Best Answer: Call us today, for a quick overview.

We look at the pertinent facts, avoid the fictions, and set up a plan of action. We layout current market conditions and how jobs, location, and the local economy, are influencing value and demand. For some, the same market news says buy, for some it indicates a wait and see, and for others, sell. This is an overview of our initial conversations, as we relish the opportunity to assist you in making the best choice – Buy, Sell, Hold, or Wait.

Prepare for your tomorrow, by calling today. Let’s talk.

The Good News: Speculative days of 2017 real estate market, have quieted. This is good for both Buyers and Sellers. Far more homes are selling at or near the asking price, without excess multiple offers. This is what I call a sound and reasoned market. Low rates say – Call today.

Own a home? Fantastic. Now is “that” good time to refinance or get a credit line. With rates not seen since the lows of 2012 and 2016 – what better time to finish your Summer projects, get your home ready for winter, consolidate debt, or simply reduce payments. CALL.

Still renting, but have delayed buying? What better time than now – with todays very low rates – to see how much more your downpayment can buy today. We will layout loan programs fit for you, offering an excellent, step-by-step approach to this big step. Best of all: It’s free. And with your help, we know how to keep the process simple and straightforward.

Give us call. We now how to build strong loans so you can provide the Seller a solid offer. Our real estate friends often say, this is the difference maker. Set yourself apart. Let’s talk.

Is this your Time to Buy or Refinance?

We are ready to make it happen – Call Mike.

Helpful News:Facts prove the best way to counter fake news attempts to fear us into a recession. It’s how to correct any misguided distortion of what is real. It is our goal.

  • Economy: Current talk is for 3rd Q GDP numbers to be a bit stronger than 2nd Quarter. Strong GDP – No recession here.
  • 2020 Recession: Some economists along with our friend Doug Duncan, chief economist with Fannie Mae, tend this way. For me, let’s wait and see if their underlying assumptions, come to be. For the moment, I disagree and here is why? A recession needs 6 months of negative GDP growth. If the Fed lowers rates one more time and injects new money into the system, this risk is greatly reduced. If China trade finds resolution, this should stimulate even stronger growth and new jobs. It is a long road from solid 2+ % growth, to 6 months negative.

For me, Duncans’s words of concern, are far more a call-to-action on the part of the Federal Reserve, the President, and Congress.

  • High-end Real Estate: Showing more signs of stress and valuation hits due to ups and downs of high-tech stocks and tax implications for loans over 750,000? This market may need more time to digest these factors, though offset by falling mortgage rates.
  • Monetary policy influence: Negative interest rates are today’s norm in Australia and the EU. Worldwide, 17 T dollars in investments have a net negative return. In response, the strength of our dollar is now a drag on our economy, suggesting a further downward bias in our interest rates. Will our rates drop further? – hard to say, though markets say yes. Be confident the Fed will not raises rates. And, as a long-term strategy, the Fed is suggesting 50 and 100 year bonds – a strong strategy to lock in very low interest rates.
  • Sign of Positive or Negative: There is an intrigue about student loans, rents, and housing payments. How about individuals taking on debt needed to buy a car? In 2019 data shows 85% of new cars, including leases, were financed – up 76% in a decade. Moreover, 32% of new-car loans are for six or seven years, whereas ten years ago, it was 12%. Further, 33% of car buyers, now roll debt –- avg $5,000 – from their old car into their new one – 25% higher than the recent recession. Why this high level financing? Consider the average cost of a car at $37,285. This is 60% of median family income!
  • Trade talks: Missing from the headlines – NAFTA II. It will prove to an economic boon for California and all US farmers and workers. Yet the House – over a year later – still refuses to consider it. Add to this, the China / US story being more about posturing, politics and media, and I can hear my friend Duncan shouting, “Washington D.C, do something or there will be a recession.” Trust this, they will not listen until we hold them accountable. Call, write, text, email, or tweet your thoughts, today.

Bay Area Good News: The Bay Area continues adding net new jobs, even amidst the news about the great California exodus. Our strength and resilience is amazing. Of particular interest: The largest “growth-group” – in renters – is Seniors. They now far outpace the younger generations. How significant? The average age of renters, is 52.

MORE THAN HOME LOANS

1) We provide loans for Small Business and Commercial. 2) Even more, we offer specialized tax-advantaged alternatives, when selling highly appreciated real estate. We are proud to say: Don’t pay Capital Gains taxes now, unless you want to deplete your cash. 3) We provide strategies to stay in your home longer, one solution being the Reverse Mortgage.

Bottom line:

Call today and let’s prepare for your tomorrow – Now.

The Good, the Bad, n the Ugly

The Good: What are some of the important facts about US emissions, relative to the alarms of US caused global warming. The largest CO2 emitter is China with 29.3% and since 1990, Chinese emissions are 354% higher. The US, by far the biggest world economy, is next at 13.8%, less than half of China. And since 1990, US emissions are unchanged. Next is India, at 6.6%, increasing 305% since 1990. Japan is at 3.6%, with increased emission of 14.9%. Now ask yourself, do you expect China, or India, or Japan to change what they are doing, at the expense of their labor force and overall economy. The Good News on emissions, is the USA.

The Bad:. This month ‘Bad‘ – our failure to celebrate our wins in California. California is doing so darn good. This despite those selling the idea that California’s shining star is waning and everyone is leaving. Try these stats: If States were Countries, CA would be the 5th largest economy in the World and Texas, the 10th – with only Japan, German, and China being larger. It is estimated that in 2050, 1 in every 4 US residents will live in either CA or TX.

The Ugly: Local TV station contacted a local real estate broker, to do an on-camera interview as to our local, single-family real estate market. During the conversation, the station canceled the interview. Why? It would seem they were seeking only those agents willing to provide negative comments. A good agent knows better. Personally, I know the people involved.

Fall Buying Season – A Unique Season of Great Opportunities

With mortgage rates so very low, are you, your friends, or co-workers looking to buy? Give us a call. We would love to discuss your options and opportunities. At the same time, letting you see for yourself, the advantages of having a highly qualified and experienced loan officer, working with you and on your team. One who puts our client’s success first – today and tomorrow. I want you to stand proud, as a successful home-owner, knowing we stand with you, until the sale is complete and whenever you have a question.

Above all else, building a trusting partnership, is key. It is what makes our shared efforts superior to an “Internet-only” approach. Regardless the fake and hype, a computer is unable to offer you, my 30 years of proven success and learned perspective. I know how to keep you safe from unsuspecting hick-ups, added expenses, and unsuited loan programs. This is my commitment to you. Let us be your team member – and advocate – for your future successes.

Closing Thoughts:

We are the financing arm to help leverage your assets and accumulate long-term wealth. We offer needed information – perspective and plausible financial solutions – with strong lenders ready to say “Yes”. Give us a call. If you are interested in this kind of outcome, let’s start building your future, today.

Thank you and continued blessings.

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