Your January 2023 Letter From My Heart with the Good Bad n’ Ugly

Good morning to new days of a New Year ! 

Don’t Wait – Prepare Today !!

Home buying continues – Home refi’s are responding to higher rates

Really Good News for Michael Ryan & Associates:

I have been selected to host a national TV show focusing on Real Estate, Lifestyle, and Community in Silicon Valley. The producers of the show are EMMY nominated. What a marvelous opportunity, one offered to a select few. It brings a special excitement to me and I cannot help but share it with you, my loyal readers. It is an honor to be a part of the team.

The particular focus of the show will be on the success stories of the people of Silicon Valley.   And get this: This show, in another real estate market, has already been nominated for an EMMY.  Where can it be watched? It will be on: CABLE, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, and Roku.

To enhance the show, the executive producer is looking to me to interview and share the stories of those voices that speak best to the success story called, Silicon Valley. This includes the mover and shakers, innovators, CEO’s, philanthropists, etc. The will spotlight what makes Silicon Valley so special. What makes it home for the innovative, hard working, creative thinkers – real people with a vision for tomorrow. 

HUGE FAVOR! WHO should I look to feature on this show? Please send me your thoughts. I would love your feedback and introductions. Thank you. 

Now back to the news that tracks our market.

Recent News and Expectations for 2023:

– Inflation: Currently at 6 %, we expect the number to steadily decrease thru the first half of 2023, into Summertime. 

– Unemployment: Nationwide, we are slowly ticking up in the first-time applications, now running about 225 K per week. The bigger story:  The slow increase in those continuing to collect benefits. This means for those laid off appear to find it harder to get a new job. 

– New Homes: Homebuilders learned from the Fannie Mae “loose” lending rules leading to the 2008 deep recession. They are more disciplined in housing formation. With the slowing of the economy, so too, this number. It is about 1.3 M per year, perhaps increasing to 1.4 M new homes.  Good News: This discipline helps keep a good balance between supply, demand, and interest rates. Thus, as mortgage rates drop, new housing formations should begin kicking up.

Bottom Line: Be Prepared Today 

Prep Today – Interest Rates Are nearing a Peak

Key to Success: Preparation and Readiness. Let your Realtor – and the Seller – know of your readiness and commitment to buy. It is a strong step in turning your dreams into reality. For certain, don’t let the “All Cash buyer” be of concerning. Most Sellers tend to prefer the real life experience of a traditional Home Buyer. Why? Because Homes are personal and family is key to the American heritage.

Bottom Line: Let’s Talk Today

Be ready today. A strong loan application is a winning attitude.

It strengthens your Realtors efforts in selling you and your offer 

as the winning offer. Being “best” prepared is sound advice.

Interesting News We Can Use

Forbearance and Foreclosures: Good News. Numbers remain very low – good news for homeowners. Yet, if foreclosure is a your possibility, a new loan is possible. Not always pretty, but not if the priority is Saving your home. Let’s talk. Sooner the better.

Interest Rates: They generally run in the same direction as inflation. However, from 2020 – 2022, mortgage rates disconnected from the inflation curve. Why? Because the Federal Reserve choose to enter into the free-markets, as a buyer of mortgages. This pumped too much money into the economy and became a trigger point for inflation.

Conventional loans: With this, let’s look at the spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year treasuries. The last time it was this wide: 2008 and early 2020.  Good News: Both times, mortgage rates eased / fell afterwards. If history repeats, it will be good for Spring Buying. 

Looking to Buy or Invest this Spring Season ?

Call today and begin early preparation now.. 

It keeps your ready and flexible. It is key. 

The Good, the Bad, And the Ugly

THE Good: Despite many economic shocks, let’s be thankful the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low. Add to this: unsnarling of the supply chains, stocks nearing a bottom, Covid is no longer a pandemic, tech layoffs give other sectors a chance to hire top talent, and much more! 

THE BAD: Affordability. The battle with the great trifecta: Inflation, doubling of interest rates, and rapidly appreciated home values. The hope: 1) a cooling of inflation with 2) the expectation for rates easing back below 6%, and 3) wage increases. Together, this should help restore affordability. In short, as inflation and interest rates ease, wages will triumph and housing will come out of a slump. Key: Productivity and how Sellers will respond.

THE UGLY: Next boom cycle?? In discussing future appreciation in home values, mortgage rates become critical for Buyers and Sellers. With this, the Headwinds: 1) Global quantitative tightening – central banks not buying – creating a liquidity crisis; 2) Risks of stagflation or deep recession; and 3) excess retail inventory. The Tailwinds: Lower inflation due to demand destruction – energy markets in particular. Black Swan events: China and Ukraine 

Planning and Preparation 

Should one invest in stocks, bonds, real estate? Each person has a different view, often based upon comfort levels and sense of risk / reward. It is what we call the market place. It is key to one’s “planning and preparation”. It is here, we bring our expertise and experience. Our efforts are to complement your perspective. Our goal: Bring a full range of meaningful options that enhance your vision, based upon todays market realities. Call today. Let’s set a time. 

Why call Mike

What We Do – Why We Are Here

We know how to explore and carefully examine the many available real estate options. We scrutinize for safety and prioritize the most feasible. It is how we build a trusted relationship with you, as you grow your wealth and secure a solid future – for you and your family. 

Small Business: We love small business and provide loans offering a full array of financing.

Residential / Commercial: We offer strong lenders and a complete package of lending options.

Tax-deferral strategies:  Investment portfolio tend to be dynamic in nature, subject to change and surprise. It is why it is important to keep updated, as to tax law. Herein, is a key question: Pay taxes today or keep your cash, working for you? How? By “deferring projected capital gains tax”? And if keeping your capital – working for you – sounds good, let’s talk. Let’s discuss the best available options and plans-of-approach. Best: We have the professional team who know how to bring it all together. Details matter and they know all the small details. 

Why: Why payout up to hundreds of thousands of dollars – even Millions – when there are tools to keep your hard earned money working for you – and your estate. Interested? If so, now maybe a good time to talk – to start planning for tomorrow. Tax planning is a good strategy, especially with new laws wanting to stop you from passing highly appreciated real estate, onto your heirs. Let’s talk. Your estate matters.

What We Do: Our role is to explain and bring clarity to time-tested strategies able to keep your money working for you. For me, this presents a solid opportunity to keep your cash and build wealth. One that is worthy and a profitable use of your valuable time. Let’s talk. 

Tools: We offer multiple tools and proven methods for highly appreciated holdings. The goal: Keeping your cash in your proven hands. Our team offers highly qualified and knowledgable professionals, are ready to make it happen. 

Retirement: Like myself, as we mature, real estate becomes more personal. If you agree, let’s talk. Together, we can help find answers and solutions to questions about a too soon, tomorrow. We can start today. We can address a range of questions, from working at home, to a multitude of retirement options. Our effort is to bring clarity to important real estate planning issues.

Our Purpose:

Be insightful and practical. 

To Work with you, finding the best answers and solutions.

Being Straight Forward with No Short Cuts. 

Success begins with solid preparation and a proven professional – Mike Ryan. I know the ropes and am a proven advocate. I offer time-tested insights and experience. Best, I love to see my clients achieve their goals. Call us – the professional team who stands with you. Call today. We are ready. 

Thank you and continued blessings.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *