Good morning to Rainy Days of January
– Mortgage Rates are coming down –
Don’t Miss Out – PREPARE TODAY – LET’S TALK
National numbers: A good reference point to help us ‘feel’ our way. Are we falling behind? Are we moving ahead? Perhaps a little of both.
Single family homes: Supply is tighter, down 35 % year-over-year. The same for properties under contract. A normal market has about 4.6 months of inventory, and we are at 3.3 month supply. But of those considered ‘active listings’ we are at 2.2 months supply. Tight supply supports prices.
Who is buying: The numbers are holding pretty steady, a bit of up and down, but no shattering news: First time homebuyers making up 28 % market share, investors up a bit to 16 % and cash buyers holding steady at 26 %
‘Real Estate Bubble’: I believe this to be mostly myth, until proven otherwise. What I look at is the macroeconomic look. Is there a Real Estate crash? Myth. Despite rising rates and recession fears, the Dodd-Frank fiasco helped bring a more disciplined, realistic approach to the mortgage market. Data matters, not the imagination of political ideology. Good News: It was replaced by more rigid and substantially tighter underwriting standards. As a result, it would take a 40% to 45% decline in home prices to match the 2006-2009 Financial Market and Housing Bust. Moreover, back then the average price decline was a necessary 28%. This time it is different.
The Good News: Being able to trust our over 30 years of putting you and your needs first. This includes my technical expertise and time tested learned experiences. What I love: My energies are activated and ready to go, with our first conversation. You motivate me. Your views and visions is where it begins. Let’s talk. Let’s prepare today for the Spring Buying Season, 2023.
Our Goal: Helping you find a safe, sound, and secure loan.
It is why every conversation matters and why we offer you
the full benefit of our skills and talents, from start to finish.
Points of interest:
- Economic drivers: The service sector is showing signs of slowing. Following a few months of a supply side slowdown, there is now a run off of built up inventories coupled with a continued easing in the supply chain congestion.
- Stock market: Whether in bear territory or not – next quarter will tell – key is to watch liquidity, inventory, oil and gas prices, and personal savings.
- Incomes: 1) continues improving, 2) local unemployment is 2.4 % – hot, but down quite a bit from a year ago. Key: Evaluating high-tech layoffs and its ramifications.
- Real Estate: There are signs of a slowing from market norms. It could be rates, it could be seasonal, or market uncertainties. Key: Keep a close eye on the 2023 Spring Buying Season. Best estimates are for an uptick, aided by better mortgage rates. CALL!!
- Don’t miss out – Start preparing today.
Overall Market News
1) Overall Home Values: 37 % of homes are owned free and clear. Of those with mortgages, it is estimated home equity grew 16 %, this past year. This due to both price increases and principle reduction from mortgage payments. Homes under water continue to hold at extreme low’s – estimated at 1.9 %. This is down from 2.2 % a year ago. Good News: NO “bubble”. During the past financial collapse, such numbers were 25 %.
2) Unemployment: Initial numbers for November show a reduction in the labor force, not quite as much as the drop in the number of people employed. The County unemployment rate ticked up to 2.4 % from 2.2 % in October. Interesting note, we are still better than the time period of October 2021 thru March of last year. Excellent.
Conclusion: The world is unsure and insecure, but our American consumer says we are okay.
For self-employed: Do you have great bank deposits, yet show low income on your tax returns? We can help. We offer loans based on bank statement and stated income. Sound favorable to your situation? Call for details.
Capital Gain Tax-Deferral: Have a client – with California investment property – wanting but not selling – because of Capital gains? We have IRS approved ways to defer such problems. We keep your client’s investment money working for them. Don’t miss out. We can help. Call.
Preparing to buying your next home: How about a “tool” that uses the old property, as collateral for the new home? We also offer a tools whereby the current, “old” home payment, does not count against you, while you get moved and settled. You need options? Call today.
Because You Matter
Our letters are a guidepost to buying, selling, or investing, helping you do so, wisely and with a sense of timing. To this, we add a complete set of helpful tools to complement our shared goal – your success. It is what I love and how I work best: people-to-people, person-to-person, matching your realities and needs, to your dreams for tomorrow.
Thank you for your trust and your referral. You are greatly appreciated.
Call me – Your success is my success.